Does Obama need a longer race?

Does Obama need a longer race?

How will the GOP’s likely choice affect the Democratic race? With the Republican looking set to select John McCain as their nominee for November’s election there will be increasing focus on the Obama-Clinton battle? Will we get a clear picture after next Tuesday’s mass of primaries and caucuses or could this be spun out over many months? David Broder of the Washington Post looks at the dynamics this morning and suggests that the longer the Democrats take to decide the…

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Will McCain be able to beat either of them?

Will McCain be able to beat either of them?

The above are the latest head to head numbers from the excellent Real Clear Politics site and show what happens when John McCain is put against either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama. As can be seen the 71 year old beats both of them on the RCP average which is updated daily. The latest figures are very much affected by the Rasmussen numbers showing the GOP man with a substantial margin over the two Democratic party possibilities. In its previous…

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Will a numbers war work again next time?

Will a numbers war work again next time?

Will Labour be able to use the approach of this 2005 election broadcast? Click on the link above and see how Labour used one of its final election TV slots in the days before the last general election. It’s effective and follows a well-established tested formula that helped underpin the 1997, 2001 and 2005 victories. Looking at it through today eyes, though, it appears outdated. Will this work again? How long will the demonisation of the Tories in this form…

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Is McCain’s bid “like a woman having a baby in her late 50s?”

Is McCain’s bid “like a woman having a baby in her late 50s?”

Newsweek raises the age question After his sensational victory in the Florida GOP primary overnight John McCain has become an even more firm odds-on favourite to take the nomination. By 0430 GMT the Betfair price in response to the result had tightened to 0.15/1 which given the fact the the market won’t be settled until September looks crazy. You only bet at such odds-on prices when the market will be resolved in a few days – to lock up your…

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Florida election night…. continued

Florida election night…. continued

CNN calls GOP race for McCain, leads Romney by 3-4 pts Halperin reporting Rudy will drop out & endorse McCain Hillary called winner in delegate-free Democrat contest Please post comments here to ease server pressure. Double Carpet

Is this where McCain will virtually clinch it?

Is this where McCain will virtually clinch it?

…or will the Romney money machine seize victory? And so the next US election night on Politicalbetting. This time it’s Florida, the biggest state to decide so far and the one that has seen the most fierce battles for the GOP crown. The Democratic party does have an election but because, like Michigan a fortnight ago, the state defied the national party on the timing what’s decided by today’s voting will not count. However if it the delegate count between…

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How much damage is Dick Morris doing to the Clintons?

How much damage is Dick Morris doing to the Clintons?

Just two months before the presidential election in 1996 dick Morris, the man who went on to advise UKIP for their Euro-Election campaign in 2004, appeared on the front page of Time magazine alongside Bill Clinton who was, of course, running for a second term. Now he has become, arguably, the fiercest critic of the couple through his blog, through press articles and TV appearances. He’s the one that gets asked to comment on his former client’s campaign style and…

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Now ComRes shows that the Tories are faltering

Now ComRes shows that the Tories are faltering

…and the Hain affair does not seem to have hurt Labour The first poll to be carried out after the Hain resignation, by ComRes for the Independent, is showing that the Tory lead is down three points to 8%. The figures are with changes on December – CON 38%(-3): LAB 30%(nc): LD 17%(+1). So the trends we have seen with ICM and YouGov have continued with the pollster that has been recording the best Tory figures – the Tory share…

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