Conservatives on 14 point lead with Com Res

Conservatives on 14 point lead with Com Res

Con 44 (+1), Lab 30 (+4), Lib Dem 16 (-3) Andrew Grice has announced that ComRes have a poll in tomorrow’s Independent newspaper, giving the Conservatives 44% and Labour 30%. The Lib Dems have fallen three points back down to 16%. Whilst Labour are up 4% from the last ComRes poll, the Conservatives have also gained, giving them their best score with ComRes since David Cameron became leader. According to UK Polling Report, this is the first time that David…

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“And Last, But Not Least…”

“And Last, But Not Least…”

Who ever thought it would get this far? It feels as though decades have passed since Hillary Clinton formally announced her candidacy for the Democratic Party nomination for President of the United States on January 22nd, 2007. Barack Obama formally entered the contest on February 10th, 2007. Over sixteen months and $335m later, the final two states in this mammoth contest will cast their votes, and likely hand Barack Obama his party’s nomination to face John McCain in November. On…

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Is there anything Labour can do to stem the tide?

Is there anything Labour can do to stem the tide?

Will Gordon look more secure after today? Ten days on from the Crewe & Nantwich by-election and MPs return to Westminster today after their long spring break. This will be the first chance many Labour members will have had to talk face to face with parliamentary colleagues about the challenges facing the party and the prospects for the next general election. What will mood be like? Will Gordon feel a tad safer after today? My guess is that he will…

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Double Carpet on Sunday

Double Carpet on Sunday

How many of these will be Prime Minister this year? Israel must be one of the few democracies whose leader is currently less secure than Gordon Brown, following the corruption probe into sitting PM Ehud Olmert (top left), amid allegations that he received $150,000 in cash from US businessman Morris Talansky. Before consideration of the current crisis, a brief overview of Israel’s politics. Historically the two dominant parties have been the centre-left Labor (PMs including Rabin, Peres, Barak) and the…

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Why I am betting on a woman to succeed Gord

Why I am betting on a woman to succeed Gord

Remember how the deputy was called wrongly for Alan Johnson? The final Saturday of June last year saw a big political betting event come to a climax – who would come out on top in Labour’s hugely complicated electoral system in the ballot to be Gordon’s deputy. The polls said Alan Johnson, the betting said Alan Johnson, even Sky News and the Daily Telegraph website above called it for Alan Johnson only a few minutes before the big announcement was…

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Why is Puerto Rico important?

Why is Puerto Rico important?

Wikimedia Commons What role will Puerto Rico play in 2008 and in the future? With respect to the electoral battle being waged by Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, no-one could have imagined back in January that the Puerto Rico primary would be anything other than the chance for the people of this Caribbean island to feel involved in the process of selecting the Democratic nominee. Whilst the nomination is substantially decided, the sheer size of the Puerto Rican electorate could…

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Could Winchester be the Lib Dems’ Waterloo?

Could Winchester be the Lib Dems’ Waterloo?

Would Clegg’s approach to Labour be the campaign issue? The suggestions that Mark Oaten might quit his Winchester seat before the general election and create a by election creates big challenges for both Nick Clegg and David Cameron. For the newly-energised Tories, flushed with confidence following Crewe and Nantwich, would fancy their chances in a seat that was lost to the Lib Dems by just two votes at the 1997 general election. Then the result was contested in the courts,…

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Sean Fear’s Friday Slot

Sean Fear’s Friday Slot

Looking Forward to Next Year In all likelihood, next year’s European Elections, and local government elections (mostly for the County Councils, and a few unitary and shadow authorities) will be held simultaneously. Year three of a Parliament is almost invariably the worst year for an incumbent government, in terms of secondary elections, and so Labour can expect to do slightly better next year than this (as they did in 1978, and as the Conservatives did in 1996). Unfortunately for Labour,…

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