What have the Lib Dems got up their sleeves? Anybody who has been following the Henley betting during the day will know that there was a big move to the Lib Dems from mid-afternoon. As I write the best back price on Betfair is 5/1. It looks as though the changes are linked to the above email which went out to Lib Dem members asking for their help for a special constituency-wide delivery tomorrow. I have no idea what’s in…
Have minister judged the public mood correctly? Shortly after David Davis formally resigned this morning the Labour party confirmed that it would not be putting up a candidate in the Haltemprice and Howden by-election. The decision was not unexpected particularly as the Labour PPC in the constituency is, or was, an opponent of his party’s 42 day detention without trial plan. It also avoids the embarrassment of having to deal with rebel Labour MPs who have said they will be…
Could the birthday week of judgement set the ball rolling? Next Friday, on June 27th, Gordon will be celebrating his first anniversary as Prime Minister and we are going to see a lot of commentators, like Jonathan Freedland in the Guardian, giving their verdict on the first twelve months. And given how events have unfolded this could provide the peg for a lot of critical analysis of his leadership style and further questions about his future. Freedland was a pretty…
Your invitation to Thursday’s PB Summer Barbeque This Thursday evening on the terrace of the National Liberal Club overlooking the Thames there’s the PB Summer Barbeque. It starts at 6pm. The venue is fabulous and is only a couple of blocks away from the Houses of Parliament. The address is Whitehall Place, London SW1A 2HE. It will be a pay-on-the-door event (the princely sum of £20 as a contribution towards costs, plus a cash bar) so we do not need…
Is my 20/1 bet on the Lib Dems good value? With all the focus on David Davis not much attention is being given to Henley a week on Thursday where the Tories are hoping to hold Boris Johnson’s old seat by a reasonable margin. The betting has reflected the general view that the Tories are a near certainty. The best you can get from a traditional bookie is 1/25. They are offering just 7/1 on the Lib Dems which is…
Nearly three electors in five say they would vote for him A new Ipsos-MORI telephone poll for the Independent this morning has what seem to be contradictory conclusions over David Davis’s move last week. On the one hand the national survey found that respondents would give him strong support if they were able to vote in the forthcoming by-election. But on the issue of whether he was right or not there’s a different conclusion. In the poll carried out from…
Why has Barack hired her former campaign chief? The big story in the White House race tonight is the hiring by Obama of Hillary’s former campaign head, Patti Solis Doyle as chief of staff to the campaign’s eventual vice presidential nominee. My initial reaction was that this was a clear sign that we are being prepared for Hillary going on the ticket. The New York Observer blog, reproduced above, takes the opposite view. Ben Smith of Politico also takes a…
Would Sebelius on the ticket be the ultimate insult? It’s not surprising, given the nature of the primary contest, that of the top three in the Democratic VP betting two are women. Hillary (4/1), of course, is still up there and there continues to be a lot being said on her behalf. Given that this does not need to be announced until the end of August it would be easier by then for Barack to choose his former opponent without…