Is Labour right not to fight the by-election?

Is Labour right not to fight the by-election?

Have minister judged the public mood correctly? Shortly after David Davis formally resigned this morning the Labour party confirmed that it would not be putting up a candidate in the Haltemprice and Howden by-election. The decision was not unexpected particularly as the Labour PPC in the constituency is, or was, an opponent of his party’s 42 day detention without trial plan. It also avoids the embarrassment of having to deal with rebel Labour MPs who have said they will be…

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Will Gord’s anniversary put his survival on the agenda?

Will Gord’s anniversary put his survival on the agenda?

Could the birthday week of judgement set the ball rolling? Next Friday, on June 27th, Gordon will be celebrating his first anniversary as Prime Minister and we are going to see a lot of commentators, like Jonathan Freedland in the Guardian, giving their verdict on the first twelve months. And given how events have unfolded this could provide the peg for a lot of critical analysis of his leadership style and further questions about his future. Freedland was a pretty…

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Meet really interesting people and have fun

Meet really interesting people and have fun

Your invitation to Thursday’s PB Summer Barbeque This Thursday evening on the terrace of the National Liberal Club overlooking the Thames there’s the PB Summer Barbeque. It starts at 6pm. The venue is fabulous and is only a couple of blocks away from the Houses of Parliament. The address is Whitehall Place, London SW1A 2HE. It will be a pay-on-the-door event (the princely sum of £20 as a contribution towards costs, plus a cash bar) so we do not need…

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Could low turnout turn Henley into another Bromley?

Could low turnout turn Henley into another Bromley?

Is my 20/1 bet on the Lib Dems good value? With all the focus on David Davis not much attention is being given to Henley a week on Thursday where the Tories are hoping to hold Boris Johnson’s old seat by a reasonable margin. The betting has reflected the general view that the Tories are a near certainty. The best you can get from a traditional bookie is 1/25. They are offering just 7/1 on the Lib Dems which is…

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How encouraging is this MORI poll for David Davis?

How encouraging is this MORI poll for David Davis?

Nearly three electors in five say they would vote for him A new Ipsos-MORI telephone poll for the Independent this morning has what seem to be contradictory conclusions over David Davis’s move last week. On the one hand the national survey found that respondents would give him strong support if they were able to vote in the forthcoming by-election. But on the issue of whether he was right or not there’s a different conclusion. In the poll carried out from…

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Does this rule Hillary out completely?

Does this rule Hillary out completely?

Why has Barack hired her former campaign chief? The big story in the White House race tonight is the hiring by Obama of Hillary’s former campaign head, Patti Solis Doyle as chief of staff to the campaign’s eventual vice presidential nominee. My initial reaction was that this was a clear sign that we are being prepared for Hillary going on the ticket. The New York Observer blog, reproduced above, takes the opposite view. Ben Smith of Politico also takes a…

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How would Hillary react to another woman being chosen?

How would Hillary react to another woman being chosen?

Would Sebelius on the ticket be the ultimate insult? It’s not surprising, given the nature of the primary contest, that of the top three in the Democratic VP betting two are women. Hillary (4/1), of course, is still up there and there continues to be a lot being said on her behalf. Given that this does not need to be announced until the end of August it would be easier by then for Barack to choose his former opponent without…

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How much of the new Tory support is flakey?

How much of the new Tory support is flakey?

Can Cameron rely on those who didn’t vote last time? In September 2007, when Labour was riding high and Gordon could do no wrong, I questioned several times whether the poll shares we were seeing were robust because so much of the “new” support for the party was coming from people who had not voted at the 2005 general election. As anybody with experience of on the ground campaigning knows the most reliable electors are those who have a record…

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