Do McCain-Palin now have more than a 35% chance?

Do McCain-Palin now have more than a 35% chance?

Should you be getting your money on? There was a marked move to John McCain in the next President betting as his running mate pick, Sarah Palin delivered her acceptance speech at the Republican convention. 0000(BST) Betfair price reflects a 33.5% implied probability of a McCain-Palin victory 0300 just before the start of her speech it rises to 35%. 0330 while she is speaking the price moves to a 36.5% probability 0500 the price has eased up to a 35.8%…

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Continuation thread: Will Palin hit it out of the ballpark?

Continuation thread: Will Palin hit it out of the ballpark?

How will the big VP acceptance speech be received? Sarah Palin will tonight accept her party’s nomination for the Vice-Presidency of the United States. The big headline speakers leading up to her keynote address will be three of the men whom John McCain beat in the primaries: Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, and Rudy Giuliani. Also speaking are three of the women whom we suggested might be his selection for VP: Meg Whitman (CEO, Ebay), Carly Fiorina (CEO, HP) and Hawaii…

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Are the Democrats playing this one wrong?

Are the Democrats playing this one wrong?

Should they be holding-off an all-out attack on Palin? Since Sarah Palin was announced as John McCain’s choice as VP, she has come under more intense scrutiny than any of the other three major candidates on the ticket. Her daughter’s pregnancy, her views on abortion and sex education and creationism, her apparent membership of the Alaskan Independence Party, and the continuation of Troopergate. Now her judgement over the ‘Bridge to Nowhere’ and the influence of her pastor are being thrown…

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Would Gordon walk away from certain election defeat?

Would Gordon walk away from certain election defeat?

I was very struck by this post by ChrisD overnight. The only way I ever saw Gordon Brown still leading the Labour party through a GE, was if there was a good to certain chance they would win. Even if he was not openly challenged or quietly pushed, I have never bought the into the idea that he would therefore cling on till the bitter end to lead his troops into an absolutely certain defeat in 2010 like Major did…

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Has McCain blown it with the Palin pick?

Has McCain blown it with the Palin pick?

Is the election now about his VEEP – not Obama? The chart shows the changing prices on John McCain on the £4m Betfair next president market over the past week covering the time leading upto the Palin announcement and afterwards. As can be seen the early reaction has was very strong with punters seeing the Alaska governor as a big plus. Since then sentiment has been moving away as the focus has been on how McCain made his decision. On…

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Is this upping the stakes for Gord?

Is this upping the stakes for Gord?

Does Labour’s candidate choice make it that more personal? Given Labour’s by election record and the terrible poll ratings then as soon as the news came of the the death of John MacDougall, MP for Glenrothes, the assumption has been that this will be the party’s third loss in Scotland of the four Westminster seats it has defended since the last general election. For after seeing a thirteen-and-a-half thousand vote majority overturned in Glasgow East in July, the real surprise…

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Should Gord call an October general election?

Should Gord call an October general election?

Would this be in Labour’s best long-term interest? Another opinion poll overnight showing not one iota of improvement in Labour’s position and another month goes by eating into the precious time the party has to get it right before it is forced to face the voters. Labour’s situation is dire and it is hard to foresee the circumstances in which it can stop Cameron’s Conservatives getting a substantial majority. There is no positive indication anywhere – and there’s been nothing…

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Palin’s daughter is pregnant

Palin’s daughter is pregnant

How will this impact – could Palin be forced off the ticket like Eagleton in ’72? Live prices for the GOP VP candidate are here. Populus Poll: Con 43 (n/c) Lab 27 (n/c) Lib Dem 18 (n/c) Double Carpet