What next for Hillary?

What next for Hillary?

A guest article by David Herdson So, it’s over. After over 16 months of formal candidacy and eight years or so as the Democratic front-runner for this nomination, Hillary’s finally bowed out of the race. She put up a strong fight, winning many millions of votes in the primaries and raising vast amounts of money. Unfortunately for her, Obama raised even vaster amounts and concentrated his votes more effectively (especially in the caucuses). That provides the Democrats with a very…

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ICM poll finds big H&H boost for Davis

ICM poll finds big H&H boost for Davis

Mail on Sunday …and Labour MPs say they will support the Tory’s stand? An ICM for the Mail on Sunday taken on Friday of adults in Haltemprice and Howden, shows massive support for the area’s MP as he seeks to resign his seat and fight a by election over Gordon’s move to increase to six weeks the length of time suspects can be held without trial. The main findings are summarised in the panel above. Asked how they would vote…

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YouGov Tory lead cut to 22%

YouGov Tory lead cut to 22%

Labour nudge up two points from their record low The second of the night’s opinion polls, from YouGov for the Sunday Times, shows a small improvement for Labour on the last survey from the firm at the end of May. The latest figures with changes on that poll are: CON 47% (nc): LAB 25% (+2): LD 18% (nc). The fieldwork took place on Thursday and Friday – important because it was on Thursday that David Davis made his big announcement….

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ComRes gives the Tories an 18% lead

ComRes gives the Tories an 18% lead

A new poll by ComRes for tomorrow’s Independent on Sunday gives the Tories an 18% lead. These are the numbers and changes compared with the last poll by the firm at the end of May. CON 44% (+1): LAB 26% (nc): LD 17% (-2): OTH 13% (+1) CON 44% (nc): LAB 26% (-4): LD 17% (+1) But the pollster found that Tory support dropped sharply after David Davis announced he was standing down. In interviews before 1pm on Thursday, the…

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Has Labour’s David Davis bubble burst?

Has Labour’s David Davis bubble burst?

Spread punters start backing the Tories again The big move back to Labour on commons seats spread betting markets has taken a tumble during the day with Tory buying and Labour selling causing a four seat switch with both main parties. Based on the mid-points from the Sporting Index prices above the market is now reflecting a Tory overall majority of 28 seats at the next election compared with the 20 seat projection that Morus reported last night. True this…

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Can Nick’s party beat the spread markets?

Can Nick’s party beat the spread markets?

Have punters got this one right? The latest buy spread level for Lib Dem general election seats is 48 – that’s 15 short of what they have at the moment. Does this represent a betting opportunity and if so which way? The detailed data from the latest ICM polls shows that Labour was just three percent ahead of the LDs before the application of of the so-called “spiral of silence adjustment” – the calculation whereby a proportion of the vote…

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Spreadbetting market sees significant shift

Spreadbetting market sees significant shift

Are Tory supporters getting nervous? Mike Smithson has asked me to highlight significant movement on the Sporting Index political spreadbetting markets. After victory in the Crewe & Nantwich by-election, the mid-point between the Buy and Sell price on Conservative seats at the next election had been around 350, implying that David Cameron would enjoy a majority of around 50. Today, that mid-point price dropped to 335, suggesting a majority of only 20. It seems inevitable that this is largely in…

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Ireland votes No – so what happens now?

Ireland votes No – so what happens now?

No has 53.7% with just 5 results left With a joint statement expected from Merkel and Sarkozy this evening, what will be the next step for the EU after a comfortable win for the “No” camp in Ireland? Only eight out of 38 constituencies declared have so far voted Yes, with a margin of just 4 votes in Carlow-Kilkenny. RTE Irish Times Results detail Double Carpet