Is there anything Labour can do to stem the tide?

Is there anything Labour can do to stem the tide?

Will Gordon look more secure after today? Ten days on from the Crewe & Nantwich by-election and MPs return to Westminster today after their long spring break. This will be the first chance many Labour members will have had to talk face to face with parliamentary colleagues about the challenges facing the party and the prospects for the next general election. What will mood be like? Will Gordon feel a tad safer after today? My guess is that he will…

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Double Carpet on Sunday

Double Carpet on Sunday

How many of these will be Prime Minister this year? Israel must be one of the few democracies whose leader is currently less secure than Gordon Brown, following the corruption probe into sitting PM Ehud Olmert (top left), amid allegations that he received $150,000 in cash from US businessman Morris Talansky. Before consideration of the current crisis, a brief overview of Israel’s politics. Historically the two dominant parties have been the centre-left Labor (PMs including Rabin, Peres, Barak) and the…

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Why I am betting on a woman to succeed Gord

Why I am betting on a woman to succeed Gord

Remember how the deputy was called wrongly for Alan Johnson? The final Saturday of June last year saw a big political betting event come to a climax – who would come out on top in Labour’s hugely complicated electoral system in the ballot to be Gordon’s deputy. The polls said Alan Johnson, the betting said Alan Johnson, even Sky News and the Daily Telegraph website above called it for Alan Johnson only a few minutes before the big announcement was…

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Why is Puerto Rico important?

Why is Puerto Rico important?

Wikimedia Commons What role will Puerto Rico play in 2008 and in the future? With respect to the electoral battle being waged by Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, no-one could have imagined back in January that the Puerto Rico primary would be anything other than the chance for the people of this Caribbean island to feel involved in the process of selecting the Democratic nominee. Whilst the nomination is substantially decided, the sheer size of the Puerto Rican electorate could…

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Could Winchester be the Lib Dems’ Waterloo?

Could Winchester be the Lib Dems’ Waterloo?

Would Clegg’s approach to Labour be the campaign issue? The suggestions that Mark Oaten might quit his Winchester seat before the general election and create a by election creates big challenges for both Nick Clegg and David Cameron. For the newly-energised Tories, flushed with confidence following Crewe and Nantwich, would fancy their chances in a seat that was lost to the Lib Dems by just two votes at the 1997 general election. Then the result was contested in the courts,…

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Sean Fear’s Friday Slot

Sean Fear’s Friday Slot

Looking Forward to Next Year In all likelihood, next year’s European Elections, and local government elections (mostly for the County Councils, and a few unitary and shadow authorities) will be held simultaneously. Year three of a Parliament is almost invariably the worst year for an incumbent government, in terms of secondary elections, and so Labour can expect to do slightly better next year than this (as they did in 1978, and as the Conservatives did in 1996). Unfortunately for Labour,…

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The Steve McCabe view of Crewe & Nantwich

The Steve McCabe view of Crewe & Nantwich

An interesting piece here on Steve McCabe’s view of the Crewe & Nantwich by election. He was, of course, Labour’s campaign manager who came under a lot of flack. He says “We set out to secure between 10,000-11,000 votes. Allowing for a turn out of around 35-40%, that was not unreasonable for a by-election. If there was no Liberal Democrat collapse, victory was possible, however unlikely.” Alas turnout was nearly 58% and the Lib Dems saw a partial collapse in…

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Do the 212 “at risk” Labour MPs want a new leader?

Do the 212 “at risk” Labour MPs want a new leader?

What will YouGov do for Gord’s survival chances? The above is what happens when you key in the C47-L23-LD18 general election vote shares from today’s Daily Telegraph YouGov poll into the Anthony Wells commons seat calculator. If you do the same with the Martin Baxter calculator at Electoral Calculus you get even worse projections for Labour – CON 452: LAB 138: LD 32 seats. Martin’s website conveniently lists the outcome for every single seat in the country – something that…

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