Has Cameron dealt with the “novice” jibe”?

Has Cameron dealt with the “novice” jibe”?

Will experience triumph over calls for change? Given the lead-up to this afternoon’s speech – the partial recovery of Labour in the polls and the global financial crisis – Cameron had one overwhelming objective: to look and sound like the prime minister in waiting. This was all about setting the tone and style right. For unlike almost any other event during the political year the party leader’s main conference speech is the one that gets extra special treatment by the…

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Guardian reader boost for Cameron – or is it?

Guardian reader boost for Cameron – or is it?

What happens when you publish a voodoo poll Every so often people come on the site with news of an online poll in one outlet or another and seek to suggest that they are representative of public opinion. Well they are not for the simple reason that those who bother to take part are self-selecting and by definition not representative of the electorate. Also if you have several computers or are smart enough you can vote as often as you…

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Is Brown’s lack of vocabulary the reason he’ll lose?

Is Brown’s lack of vocabulary the reason he’ll lose?

Click on panel to watch Why doesn’t he try to make what he says interesting? On the thread last night James A posted a link to one of Brown’s hurriedly arranged interviews yesterday and raised the issue of the PM’s lack of variation in the words that he uses. Just click on the panel and watch it for 90 seconds and you’ll hear him saying the same thing using the same few words time and time again. There’s no recognition…

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Is it worth a punt on the Tories getting their poll lead back?

Is it worth a punt on the Tories getting their poll lead back?

Does a 16%-20% margin seem like a value bet? The Irish bookmaker PaddyPower has put up a range of markets linked to David Cameron’s big conference speech tomorrow – the most interesting being the one featured in the panel above – what polling lead will the Tories have in the first post-big speech survey? After some consultation with me this will be settled on the basis of the party shares in the first YouGov poll where the fieldwork starts after…

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How dangerous is the crisis for the Tories?

How dangerous is the crisis for the Tories?

Could it be a game-changer for Labour? There was an emergency statement by David Cameron at the Tory conference this morning in which he sought to look statesmanlike and ensure that his party cannot be portrayed by Labour as opponents of tighter regulation. It will also mean that he gets onto the bulletins during what will be a highly charged day. The key point was an an announcement that the party would be withdrawing its objection to aspects of a…

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Could a bail-out deal turn the race round?

Could a bail-out deal turn the race round?

Would an ending of the crisis put McCain back in contention? So it’s another day and for Barack Obama and John McCain there are just five weeks more left before Americans vote to decide the next occupant of the White House. The chart, based on the judgement of punters on the Betfair betting exchange says it all. Two weeks ago McCain’s chances of success based on his betting price were put at 45%. This morning they are about 28% –…

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Will Labour be disappointed with this?

Will Labour be disappointed with this?

What do we make of no conference bounce? …..meanwhile, away from the news from Washington, the September ComRes poll for the Independent is just out on the firm’s web-site and the figures are featured above. When it is published in the paper in morning it will show comparisons with the newspaper’s August survey – not the last poll from the firm that was completed just before Labour’s gathering in Manchester. That’s a pity because the only comparisons that really matter…

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Is Gord’s conference bounce being sustained?

Is Gord’s conference bounce being sustained?

What will the latest ComRes poll have in store? I’ve just been told that there’s a new ComRes national voting intention poll which will be published tonight. The last survey from the pollster, taken straight after the Lib Dem conference but before Labour’s gathering started, had the worst figures for the Tories in months. The totals then were CON 39%: LAB 27%: LD 21%. If ComRes have followed their normal pattern then fieldwork would have started on Friday and continued…

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