But this is a conference season poll. A new ICM poll for the Guardian is just out and shows a three point increase in the Tory lead. Given that the fieldwork was taken this week that is hardly surprising. I will be interested to look at the detailed data to see what the gap was before the pollster applied its spiral of silence adjustment. This is where it makes an assumption of how those who won’t would vote based on…
It’s 10/1 that he won’t make it to the general election? On July 29th 2004, just as Peter Mandelson was about to take up his role as EU Commissioner, we suggested here that the 3/1 that was then available on him leaving the role early was worth looking at noting that “looking at the form book this might be a good bet!” So another PB tip comes good and I must check with William Hill to find out how much…
Mandelson makes a surprise return in Cabinet reshuffle The big story this morning is the unexpected news that Peter Mandelson is set to return from Brussels and commence his third stint in Cabinet, this time as Business Secretary with a seat in the Lords. Elsewhere, John Hutton moves from Business to replace Des Browne at Defence, while Geoff Hoon takes over at Transport from the departing Ruth Kelly. Margaret Beckett returns in a “cabinet enforcer” role, Ed Miliband will head…
What’s the political impact of power seeping away from Labour One of the greatest weapons in the armoury of any government is that it has power. It can use it to influence the media agenda and, of course, to further its political position. But is that starting to change with the growing realisation that is is not as strong as it was? In a Times comment this morning Sam Coates makes this acute observation: “The Mayor of London’s decision to…
Will it be the non-political interaction that matters most? The picture is the hall at the university in St. Louis as it was being prepared for the only VP debate of the 2008 Presidential election that will take place tonight. There has been enormous interest especially over whether Sarah Palin will be able to hold her own. Expectations for her are certainly at rock bottom follow some terrible TV interviews where her lack of knowledge and her home-spun manner have…
Are punters anticipating a polling boost? David Cameron’s conference speech seems to have gone down well on the spread betting markets where there has been a shift to the Tories this morning. Sporting Index has moved up two seats and is now only four seats below the market high in mid-September when an Ipsos-MORI poll came in with a 28% Tory lead. In this form of betting punters “trade” the number of seats as though they were stocks and shares…
Can we really envisage him being at Number 10? One thing that we are learning from the McCain-Obama battle in the US is that instant reactions by the media and professional commentators are not always the best guide to the public’s mood. Thus a week ago the first debate was scored by most of the experts as being a McCain win or a tie – yet the polling this week has been all towards the Democratic contender. So I’m holding…
Have the markets been right to be optimistic? So it’s back to another nail-biter over the bail-out bill – described at the weekend by the Republican Leader John Boehner, R-Ohio, as a “crap sandwich”. This time it will be in the senate where there’s said to be more support than in the House of Representatives. The markets seem to be assuming that it will go through – given the way stocks have recovered. We’ll see because if it doesn’t then…