Should we believe a word the instant pundits say on the night? The general view of the pundits after the first presidential debate last month was that McCain had probably won. He’d made his arguments better and many of the “experts” were ready to pronounce him the instant winner. That’s not how it played out in the polls and since that first encounter the movement has all been one way – to the young black Senator from Illinois. Almost the…
Now the battle moves on to who will get the blame? On what the BBC business editor, Robert Peston, is calling “Momentous Monday” the FTSE 100 has moved up more than 100 points as the City digests the news that RBS is now 60% owned by the government with a 40% share being held in the newly merging Lloyds and HBOS. As part of the deal the chief executives and chairmen of both RBS and HBOS are resigning and Peston…
Welcome to the brave new world of nationalised banking After the most dreadful few days on the markets last week it will be back to business this morning though with a huge difference – large sections of the UK banking industry will now find that the government is the biggest shareholder and that they’ve got much more capital to play with. The details, as I write, are sketchy and a formal announcement is expected this morning – but the papers…
Wikimedia Commons Jack Peterson looks at the world’s ninth-largest economy ahead of Tuesday’s election On Monday September 29, as the campaign reached its halfway point, Conservative PM Stephen Harper had reason to be satisfied with his party’s progress towards a majority government. A slew of negative advertisements had succeeded in portraying Liberal leader Stéphane Dion as a weak and indecisive figure, whose flagship Green Shift tax plan posed a threat to economic growth and national unity. As Conservative poll numbers…
Should you now become a Labour buyer? There have been big moves during the day on the spread-betting markets where punters with deep pockets buy and sell the number of seats each of the parties will get at the next election. The spreads at 2pm BST are featured above. Just ten days ago a buyer of Tory seats would have had to go in at the 356 level. That’s now down on one market to 344 seats. I decided to…
Would his failing eyesight be the reason? In the early of this morning the poster Diogenes linked to the above story and asked the questions “Is this significant? Is it a potential route to a graceful early retirement?” I’ve been thinking about it hard for the past few hours and believe that he might be onto something. Certainly it would be a valid reason for him to go and certainly it would explain the very clear change in his whole…
But the Tories are still well above 40% As expected Gordon Brown personally and Labour have received a poll boost in the wake of the global financial crisis. The figures from the latest survey in the Sunday Times with comparisons on the last poll from the firm are: CON 43%(-2): LAB 33%(+2): LD14%(-1) As ever we have the usual problem of the paper comparing not with the last published poll from the firm but from the last survey that it…
Which events could turn the tide this late in the game? On Thursday night, I recorded another 10-minute slot for ‘Inside City Hall’ on NY1 (the Time Warner Cable news channel for New York). To the astonishment of the host, Dominic Carter, I mentioned an InTrade market that assesses the likelihood of an Israeli or US attack on Iran. Though I don’t play this market myself (I actually find it in rather poor taste), I suggested that such a significant…