Before we get off the subject of certainties….

Before we get off the subject of certainties….

Remember the most famous front page in political journalism As we contemplate how certain we are about an Obama victory next Tuesday perhaps we ought to remind ourselves of the dangers of jumping the gun. The picture is, of course, the famous one of Harry Truman on the morning in 1948 when he was re-elected president, holding up a copy of that day’s Chicago paper with the headline completely wrong. Truman won an emphatic victory of 303-189 in electoral college…

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Should I put my pension lump sum on Obama?

Should I put my pension lump sum on Obama?

How much of a certainty is the Democrat? One group of people who the politicians seem to be ignoring are those like me who look to the interest from their savings for part of their monthly income. Having avoided putting my pension lump sum into shares and then kept well away from the Icelandic banks I now have a problem. After tax the net return from my savings is less than 3% and it looks as though this will get…

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Is voter retention Brown’s biggest challenge?

Is voter retention Brown’s biggest challenge?

What should Labour do about those who were drawn to Tony? One of the great polling developments of the past two years is that the three telephone firms that use past vote weighting are now providing data so you can see what those who said they voted for the main parties at the last general election plan to do at the next one. I’ve extracted the above numbers from the latest ComRes, ICM and Populus surveys and have sought to…

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Tonight’s wrap and Marf cartoon

Tonight’s wrap and Marf cartoon

Hills make Labour odds-on at Glenrothes The bookie says they have not taken any bets on the SNP winning the seat since Brown campaigned there at the weekend. The firm has Labour at 10/11 to win the seat, with the SNP marginal favourites at 4/5. The Hills Labour price is pretty mean. Just go to the round-up of live prices in the other Glenrothes betting and you can get the party at 5/4. Obama 19% ahead amongst early voters. The…

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What will happen to green politics during the recession?

What will happen to green politics during the recession?

Is the environment only something we care about when we are prosperous? The chart above is from the latest Ipsos-MORI and shows responses to the firm’s unprompted “What do you thing are the main/important issues facing Britain today” which they have been asking in exactly the same way for more than two decades. As can be expected the current top topic raised by respondents was the economy. But just look at the way “green” concerns have been declining. When your…

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ComRes poll points to a hung parliament

ComRes poll points to a hung parliament

Should spread punters now be buying Labour? There’s a new ComRes poll out for the Independent which could make worrying reading for the Tories. Although the margin over Labour is down by just one point the last ComRes poll was showing the worst figures for the Tories of all the pollsters. As ever the Independent’s report of its poll is highly misleading because the comparisons it uses are with the last survey it published – not the last survey by…

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What’s going to be the long-term affect on our politics?

What’s going to be the long-term affect on our politics?

Will those in power get the blame or will they be seen as offering stability? Another week opens with volatility on the stock markets round the world and it’s almost as though this has become the new norm. We seem to be getting used to it and it isn’t quite dominating the headlines and bulletins in the way that it was. But what’s going to be the impact on political structures and the political process? Are, for instance, we going…

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Is this the best Obama endorsement so far?

Is this the best Obama endorsement so far?

What can McCain-Palin do in the final few days? As we enter the final week of the 2008 US White House race newspapers right across the night are coming out for one candidate or the other. And there’s one today which will give extra pleasure to the Obama camp – from the leading publication in the state where Sarah Palin is governor, Alaska. This is how the Anchorage Daily News sees it: “..Gov. Palin’s nomination clearly alters the landscape for…

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