How a “losing” Labour bet could be a winner

How a “losing” Labour bet could be a winner

Is Paddy Power’s the best Labour bet about? The Glenrothes by-elections and the narrowing of the gap in the latest Populus poll has renewed interest in betting on the outcome of the next general election – but the possibility of confusion has arisen over how you define “winner”. Most bookies and Betfair use this format – “Which of these parties will win the most Parliamentary seats at the next UK General Election?”. That seems simple enough though you could see…

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Who’ll win the argument on tax cuts?

Who’ll win the argument on tax cuts?

Are we seeing politics turn upside-down? While the main story today has been the 90th anniversary of the ending of the First World War all three main party leaders have been casting their hats into the ring in the new war – that of who has the best tax cut policies. No doubt we’ll see more hostilities at PMQs tomorrow. Gone are the days, it seems, that before you put together a cutting proposal it had to be funded in…

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How much of Populus was down to Scotland?

How much of Populus was down to Scotland?

Does the data support the “heartlands” theory? My apologies for the third post in succession about the Populus poll but it has been the most sensational survey that we’ve seen in months and it does merit close examination. The detail has now been made available and one element sticks out – how well Labour polled in Scotland in the immediate three days after the Glenrothes by election. Just look at the numbers above which I should explain don’t represent individual…

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Did ICM carry out today’s Populus poll?

Did ICM carry out today’s Populus poll?

How come the firms have such different results? Above is the rather anonymous office block in Bedford which houses the ICM calling centre where, more than likely, the field-work for today’s Populus poll in the Times was carried out. “ICM calling centre..”, I can hear you saying,”.. surely some mistake?” No – because the process of doing the telephone interviews is something that Populus usually contracts out and ICM are a leader in this field. There are other similarities as…

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Populus has Tory lead down to 6%

Populus has Tory lead down to 6%

CONSERVATIVES 41% (-4) LABOUR 35% (+5) LIB DEMS 16% (+1) In what is by far and away the best poll for Labour for more than six months the November Populus poll for the Times has last month’s Tory lead of 15% down to just 6%. This is a very big change and means that the pollster is showing a very different picture from ICM which reported at the weekend. Putting these numbers into the UK Polling Report seat calculator and…

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And now for the Barack and George W show….

And now for the Barack and George W show….

Will the smiles continue when the cameras aren’t around? Marf’s cartoon this afternoon is on happenings in Washington DC where in a few hours all eyes will be focussed on the White House where the President and the President-elect will have their first formal meeting. The plan is for Obama and Michele to spend about 90 minutes there and the Obamas will make a tour of the White House. Then the two men will sit down to talk about the…

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Can you spot “Brown’s bailout bounce”?

Can you spot “Brown’s bailout bounce”?

Is John Curtice right about it being a myth? One of the biggest errors that many pundits make is when they compare the numbers from one pollster with another and then conclude that there is a trend. You see this all the time and it is wrong. The six pollsters that regularly carry out voting intention surveys in the UK each have their own bespoke methodology which is unique to them. The only valid comparisons are when you compare like…

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Henry G Manson: Lammy for Mayor?

Henry G Manson: Lammy for Mayor?

Back Lammy to Lead Labour’s London Bid The recent months have seen some interesting little developments that could impact on who will be Labour’s mayoral candidate in London. Ladbrokes have been first off the mark with a very thorough market for who will be the next Mayor of London. Boris Johnson is 5/6 and as much as it pains me to say it, I think this is a value choice. However it is also worth examining the possible runners and…

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