Were there enough 2005 Lib Dems in the MORI sample? My apologies for the third post in succession on the Ipsos-MORI poll but it produced numbers that were so startling that it deserves further scrutiny. Yesterday it was all doom and gloom for the Lib Dems over the MORI 12% yet a close study of the data raises the question of whether were there enough 2005 Lib Dem supporters in the sample? It will be recalled that on May 5th…
Last May, it will be recalled, Ipsos-MORI lanuched a major review of its methodology after its performance in the Ken-Boris battle for London. The firm stopped publishing results for a couple of months before it announced big changes and this latest poll embraces measures to stop Labour being over-stated. A major element of the reform was to identify and weight the public sector workers in their samples who have tendency to be much more pro-Labour and anti-Tory than the electorate…
CONSERVATIVES 40% (-5) LABOUR 37% (+7) LIB DEMS 12% (-2) Could this increase the chances of a 2009 election? MORI has just sent me the headline figures which appear above and have confirmed to me that the shares relate to those who are 100% certain to vote. This is a sensational poll for Labour and there can be little doubt that it will step up the pressure for an early election. One thing is clear – MORI is living up…
Why so much variation over the Lib Dem number? Whenever I go anywhere, like yesterday during a very enjoyable visit to Westminster, virtually everybody I speak to asks me the same question – “Which pollster do you think is best?”. My answer, as always, is ICM because the record since the mid-90s shows that the firm’s methodology is more likely to pick up the most accurate Lib Dem share. This matters because it has a big impact on the Labour…
Some words of comfort from Michael White With George Osborne continuing to make the news there’s a good analysis of his position from Michael White of the Guardian in which he suggests that the Shadow Chancellor’s biggest problems are on his own side – not the attacks from Labour. White writes: “..Much more important to my mind than Labour attacks is that the people pushing hardest to get Osborne out are on his own side. And most of them are…
Are the Tories being out-classed in the spin wars? One of big decisions that Gord took during his summer holiday was to beef up Labour and the government’s whole PR operation in order to compete with the Tory threat. Result: the return of perhaps the most successful political spin team ever – Mandelson and Campbell. And over the past six weeks we have seen a transformation in the way Team Brown is getting its message across and its ability to…
Wikimedia Commons A guest article from Balakirev With oil prices in a slump, the rouble tumbling and domestic stock exchanges closing for days at a time, it’s tempting to imagine that the swaggering Russia visible over the past year or so is about to be replaced by a staggering Russia. Well, not quite and certainly not yet. But there are strong signs that it has finally sunk in with Moscow’s leadership that it is not immune from the swirling economic…
Why the default assumption is against Labour With two polls this morning showing very different outcomes and both apparently have taken place at the same it’s perhaps a good moment to bring PB’s “Golden Polling Rule” out again. Just to recall YouGov in the Sunday Times has the Tory lead narrowing to 5% while ComRes in the Indy on Sunday has it increasing to 12%. Eh? For based on the polling record at every single major election since the 1980s…