Is the best bet the Tories in Q1-Q2 2009?

Is the best bet the Tories in Q1-Q2 2009?

Is Populus just following the Cameron exposure rule? The betting exchange, Betfair, have just put up the above new market where the “runners” are the date of the election broken down into six month segments and which party will end up with most seats. This promises to be a fascinating betting arena where I think a lot of the action will take place. Interestingly the latest prices on January-June 2009 election have Labour tighter than the Tories. This is probably…

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Labour get closer with Populus

Labour get closer with Populus

CONSERVATIVES 39% (-2) LABOUR 35% (nc) LIB DEMS 17& (+1) Tory lead at lowest level since April Further confirmation that Labour and the Tories are getting closer comes in the latest Populus Poll bfor the Times tomorrow. The figures above show Labour steady but the Tories down a touch and the Lib Dems up. This will be a massive disappointment for the Tories who had really been hoping for something better – given the surveys by ICM and MORI just…

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Has the News of the World made Martin more vulnerable?

Has the News of the World made Martin more vulnerable?

Could the Speaker have to face the music? If the News of the World report is right that the Crown Prosecution Service is concluding that the case against Green and Galley is “not prosecutable” then that puts a whole different complexion on the affair and today’s debate. For the possibility that there’s not a “crime” takes away one of the main props on which the two who are most exposed – the Speaker and the Home Secretary – had been…

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Has Harper done anything more than buy himself time?

Has Harper done anything more than buy himself time?

Will Canada’s Conservative PM still be in office next spring? It’s less than eight weeks ago that I (and in contrast to the US election night, probably few fellow Brits) had an “all-nighter” to watch the Canadian election results come through live. With the exceptions of Quebec and Newfoundland, the Conservatives performed strongly, turning three-figure majorities into five-figure ones, while the Liberals had a disastrous night under the hapless Dion and the NDP made progress. But now, although Harper’s Conservatives…

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No charges against Green – NOTW

No charges against Green – NOTW

So where does Greengate go from here? The News of the World is reporting that neither Damian Green nor the Home Office mole will be charged: “…Damian Green and his Home Office mole will NOT be charged in the leak scandal, the News of the World can reveal. Prosecutors say papers seized from Mr Green’s Commons office cannot be used as evidence in a trial. They add that cops FAILED to conduct a proper search in Westminster. The conclusions, in…

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In the Sunday Papers

In the Sunday Papers

The Speaker wants another term – but can he finish this one? The BBC is reporting that the Speaker has lost the confidence of 30 MPs, with 50 believing him to be culpable over the Green arrest, while the Observer editorial simply says “Stand down, Mr Speaker”, and the Mail reports on how the Serjeant at Arms was “knifed” by the Speaker. However, the Sunday Times reports a defiant Michael Martin as wanting to stand for a third term as…

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Is one of Gordon’s cabinet a leaker to the Tories?

Is one of Gordon’s cabinet a leaker to the Tories?

Mail on Sunday Could two Labour ministers be giving secret tip-offs? Potentially the most explosive story in the Sunday papers is a long report in the Mail on Sunday in which the Tories are saying that they have received direct leaks from the heart of Gordon Brown’s cabinet. A letter to Brown from shadow minister, Chris Grayling, is reproduced in the paper and there’s little doubt that this steps up the ante in the ongoing leaks row. For it suggests…

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Does this mean it’s time to start talking Tax Cuts?

Does this mean it’s time to start talking Tax Cuts?

Ipsos MORI Issues Tracker On what issues will the next election be fought? On Tuesday-last, Double Carpet and I attended the Ipsos MORI ‘End of Year Review’ in the CBI Conference facility at Centrepoint in London. Over 300 delegates were in attendance, mostly from public sector organisations who rely on Mori for social research, and we got to meet Julia Clark who frequently comes onto PB.com to answer our questions – I am indebted to her for providing me with…

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