Let’s get real about a 2009 Q1-Q2 election Everywhere, it seems, there is election date speculation and the new possibility that is coming into the frame is February 2009. But how seriously should we take this? For one of the problems we have at the moment is that the only polls that are getting highlighted are the ones at the extreme. So YouGov’s survey for the Sunday Times showing a small increase in the Tory share and a small decrease…
Can we redeem ourselves with the ICM predictions? Tonight I thought that we would be discussing the final ICM poll of the year from the longest running series in British politics – in the Guardian. Alas it seems that we’ll have to wait until tomorrow. This survey was singled out almost exactly a year ago for the PB Big Prediction for 2008. Just look at our New Year’s Eve 2007 thread when we we ran an online poll in which…
PB’s cartoonist is Marf of LondonSketchbook.com. Check out her site for interesting Christmas gifts.
CONSERVATIVES 41% (-2) LABOUR 36% (+4) LIB DEMS 11% (-4) What will this do to the election speculation? A new poll by Ipsos-MORI for the Daily Mirror is out this morning and shows a four point increase in Labour support at the expense of the Lib Dems. The Tories are down two so last month’s MORI margin of 11% is reduced to 5%. The 11% Lib Dem share equals the lowest total that Nick Clegg’s party has had in any…
Will the GOP race be down to Palin against Huntsman? Exactly a month ago today I made my first bet of the 2012 White House Race – £50 at 200/1 on Jon Huntsman, the young governor of Utah for President. Since then the Ladbrokes price on my man has tightened to 33/1 with 20/1 on him getting the Republican nomination. In the meantime there’s news that the highly tipped governor of Louisiana, Bobby Jindal, is making it clear that he…
Is Portillo right about the Conservatives and Clarke? The Sunday Times reports that the Cabinet is split over the proposed third runway at Heathrow, with Hilary Benn warning that the expansion should be rejected unless noise and air pollution are dramatically cut. The Environment Secretary gives an interview to the paper who suggest that the “similarities between the father and his cabinet minister son are becoming increasingly apparent”. ST columnist Michael Portillo argues that “if the Tories lose the election…
CONSERVATIVES 41% (+1) LABOUR 35% (-1) LIB DEMS 15% (+1) Will this bring relief to Team Cameron The second poll of the night, by YouGov for the Sunday Times, adds further to the confused picture of what is happening to public opinion about the general election. For the online pollster is reporting a two point increase in the Tory lead with Cameron’s party still above 40%. It also, contrary to ComRes, has the Lib Dems advancing even if only by…
CONSERVATIVES 37% (nc) LABOUR 36% (nc) LIB DEMS 14% (-3) Tory lead still at just one point The IoS ComRes poll is just out and represents no change between the two main parties but a sharpish slump in the Lib Dem share. Clearly Labour will be delighted with the numbers though I would have expected Brown’s party would have done better given the Lib Dem movement. Normally a Lib Dem decline leads to a Labour boost – but not here….