Will we do better predicting 2009 than we did with 2008?

Will we do better predicting 2009 than we did with 2008?

Can we redeem ourselves with the ICM predictions?

Tonight I thought that we would be discussing the final ICM poll of the year from the longest running series in British politics – in the Guardian. Alas it seems that we’ll have to wait until tomorrow.

This survey was singled out almost exactly a year ago for the PB Big Prediction for 2008. Just look at our New Year’s Eve 2007 thread when we we ran an online poll in which the PB community was asked to make some predictions for 2008. With the benefit of hindsight the responses were not that good.

Among the ones we get wrong were:-

Republican nomination – Rudolph Giuliani

Democratic party nomination – Hillary Clinton

London Mayor – Ken Livingstone

The Irish Referendum to be a YES

House prices to drop by less than 5% during 2008

The FT 100 index to increase by 0-5% during 2008

But could we partially redeem ourselves with the two questions linked to the December 2008 ICM poll. I reckon that the Tory lead of 6-9% from the online survey of December 2007 looks to be in the right territory but that the Lib Dem share will be way above the 15-16% segment.

Mike Smithson

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