LAB no longer odds on to win a majority
Starmer’s party edging down in the betting
Raab bows to the inevitable and quits before he faced the sack
The SNP’s rapid unscheduled disassembly continues
These poll findings aren’t much of a surprise for those following events in Scotland. The figure that really stands out is Yousaf’s ratings amongst SNP voters. Back in 2010/11 one of the reasons many of bet and predicted the SNP would do better than the polls implied was Iain Gray’s dire ratings. Yousaf needs to improve his ratings if the SNP wants to retain power at Holyrood. Earlier on this week I said whilst we may have seen peak SNP…
Raab’s future hangs in the balance
Can Sunak risk NOT sacking his deputy? Very wisely I would suggest the PM has decided to mull things over until tomorrow about what to do following the report into allegations of bullying by his deputy. It is hard to make a judgment without knowing the details but it must be worrying for Raab that he has to wait until tomorrow to find out his fate. Whatever it is very hard to envisage no action being taken and Sunak does…
The GE1992 polling disaster – the lessons learnt
The election that shaped modern polling The biggest election shock certainly since I started taking an interest in politics was in 1992 when against all the odds John Majors tories managed to hang on to a majority Lots of reasons were put forward at the time about why the pollsters got it so wrong and it was this election that led to a discussion of the “Shy Tory” syndrome. Those backing Major’s party were said to be reluctant to admit…
The NHS isn’t working
One of the things the government needs to do if it has any chance of having a better general election result than the current polls imply is making sure the performance of the NHS is doing better than it currently is. Whilst throwing cash at the NHS won’t immediately fix the problems, I wonder if they can fix issues with the NHS in other ways (apart agreeing deals with striking NHS staff.) The spectre of the pandemic is still having…
The Tories will surely find a way for BoJo to remain an MP
it is very hard to see any outcome for the next general election that does not involve the Tories losing a lot of seats. Even if we take the most favourable current poll for Sunak’s party, R&W on Monday, the Tories are 12% behind. At GE2019 the blues had a 12% GB national vote lead so in terms of swing there has been a 12% CON-LAB one. My guess is that there will be more of a swing back to…