But will YouGov be overstating UKIP again? With the next EU elections due to take place at the start of June there’s a first poll, from YouGov in the Sunday Telegraph, which suggested that both Labour and the Tories are going to do better then they did last time. These are the figures with comparison on the 2004 EU election result:- CON 35 (+8): LAB 29 (+6): LD 15 (NC): UKIP 7 (-9): GRN 5 (-1): BNP 4: SNP/PC 4…
How do you calculate a ‘moral victory’? Hat Tip to James Forsyth over at the Spectator Coffee House for drawing our attention to an interview with Vince Cable in today’s Times. The key passage that is attracting all the attention is: Although he started his political career in the Labour Party, once working as a special adviser to John Smith, Dr Cable emphasises that the Liberal Democrats would be happy to prop up the Conservatives if they won a “moral…
The Menu Has Changed There once was a time that Britain had a fairly straighforward choice of restaurant. Our beloved class structure, in which every Earl and urchine knew his place, and each understood the choice of fare that was offered. They were simpler days, before we infused our gastronomy with foreign flavours, and yielded in silent homage (rhymes with fromage) to the culinary imperatives of Continental cuisine. Sadly those days are gone, and the Blonde and I this week…
UKPollingReport Could he be back below 20% at Christmas? Just when I feared that with no imminent elections that there would be little for political punters to bet on the bookmakers are getting their thinking hats on and now the Dublin-firm, PaddyPower, has introduced a new market on Gord’s Approval ratings. The market applies to “.. Gordon Browns approval rating (% of those who consider Brown to be doing the job of PM well or fairly well) as Prime Minister…
Will Labour be able to stop a Tory from being next Speaker? Last Saturday I suggested that people should consider getting on the former LIb Dem leader, Sir Ming Campbell, in the then William Hill next speaker market following reports in that morning’s Daily Mail of a possible LAB-LD agreement to support him. At the time Ming was not even listed as a runner on the Hill market but I got through on the phone, as did others, and got…
CONSERVATIVES 41% (-1) LABOUR 34% (-1) LIB DEMS 15% (+1) Does this show that the Brown bounce is over? The first poll of 2009, a YouGov survey for the Sun, has the Tories still on a seven point lead. Compared with the last survey from the pollster before Christmas both Labour and the Tories are down a point with the LDs up one. This is clearly very little change but the fact that the Tories are still in the 40s…
What about 3/1 that it will be 0% during the year? With the bank rate hitting its lowest ever level in more than three centuries since the Bank of England was founded there’s now some betting interest on where this is all going to. William Hill’s are offering odds of 3/1 that the Rate will hit 0% at some stage during 2009. This is available online – but like other political markets from the firm you won’t be able to…
What’ll be the impact of saying Plan A was wrong? The front pages of the Daily Mail and the Times this morning are dominated by the same story – a plan by the Treasury to “print more money” to deal with the ongoing economic crisis. As the Mail puts it:“…The prospect of what is known as ‘ quantitative easing’ – printing money – emerged as Mr Darling gave a clear sign that the recession this year will be worse than…