The overnight White House race thread
Lest betting prices. Latest polls.
How can Gord/Mandy get these numbers down?
How can Cameron be stopped if the Tories are in the 40s? In the panel above are the Tory shares from the latest polls by the six firms that carry out monthly voting intention polls in Britain. There seem to be two clusters – ComRes/ICM/YouGov which have the party in the low 40s with Populus/MORI/BPIX recording shares in the mid-40s. These have varied from time to time but in spite of all that’s been happening Labour has found it all…
Will Gord be able to shrug off a Glenrothes set-back?
Is the narrative so much on his side at the moment? If you look at the Glenrothes by election betting then there’s little doubt how punters are seeing the Fife by election in the seat next door to Brown’s just two weeks today. Although there’s been some tightening of the Labour price the SNP are still odds on favourite. Sarah Brown herself was there yesterday and the Times has a wonderfully amusing account of how stage managed it all was….
Is early voting adding to the McCain nightmare?
For those obsessed with election numbers there’s a new source which I have put in the links bar on the right – the progress that is being made on early voting. In some states quite a lot of information is being made available including the numbers of registered Democrats and registered Republican party voters who have already turned out. The numbers look very good for Obama – reinforcing his continued solid leads in the polls. With this becoming such a…
YouGov marginals poll suggests Tory majority of 54
A new YouGov poll of 60 marginal seats where Labour’s majority was between 6% and 14% suggests that there’s been a significant move to the government in the past month. In September the poll projected an overall Tory majority of 110 seats – today’s survey puts that down to 54 seats. The actual voting shares in the poll have the Tory lead at 5% – but remember the seats polls were all solidly Labour last time. The poll was carried…
MORI Tory lead down by 13%
But the poll suggests that Labour still heading for disaster The October Ipsos-MORI monitor is out this morning and shows a big reduction in the Tory lead from the very exceptional figures of September when the party was a massive 28% ahead. That survey had taken place before the conference season began when Gordon Brown’s problems were at their height. Everybody was expecting a big drop in the October numbers and so it has been. One unique factor that drives…
Why was the alleged “ask” only for £50,000?
From a fundraising perspective this story does not add up For twenty years before switching to work full-time on PB my day job was as professional fundraiser running the operations at Oxford, Cambridge, LSE and York universities as well, in an earlier guise advising on a professional basis organisations such as the Liberal Democrats. And from where I sit the Osborne story as it is being related at the moment simply does not add up. The fundamental flaw is the…
Is there money to be made on an Obama landslide?
How many electoral college votes will he take? With the actual outcome of next month’s US Presidential election now almost a forgone conclusion the big question for punters is where they should bet next – and there’s now better way of testing your skills than trying to guess how many electoral college votes the contenders will win. There are lots of different markets including this one from Ladbrokes where you have to choose which segment Obama or McCain will fall…