Time to take the 15/8 on Sarah Teather in Brent Central?
How will this affect Dawn’s re-election chances? As we’ve discussed before here one of the most interesting constituency battles in in Brent Central in north-West London where because of boundary changes two women MPs are fighting to stay in parliament. Five and a half years ago, in a political environment dominated by the Iraq War aftermath and the death of David Kelly the Lib Dem, Sarah Teather, beat off a fierce Labour onslaught to take Brent East in a by…
Can a PM ever admit that he “doesn’t know”?
Are columns like this turning the media narrative? There’s a must-read column in the Independent today, highlighted by Ted on the overnight thread, which seems to get to the heart of the political and economic challenges that are facing Britain. So much, Hamilton argues, is tied with the personality of the Prime Minister and his inability to admit uncertainty. Hamilton writes: “..His political dilemma is obvious enough. Having set himself up as the man in control, the leader with the…
The PB100 predictions for 2009
How will Politicalbetting’s finest do in the year ahead? With a providential 100 entries exactly for the PB forecaster of the year competition, the predictions have been crunched and the key findings are now available. PM, Opposition Leader, Lib Dem leader at Xmas: 96% and above for all three current incumbents. Speaker at Xmas: Martin 65% Campbell 23% Chancellor at Xmas: Darling 71% Balls 21% Ireland Yes %: Average 47.4%, 56% predict a second “No” Euro averages: Con 37, Lab…
PB’s “The Money Says Index”: CON MAJ 48
The projection’s now only 8 seats below the summer peak Even though Labour’s opinion poll deficit is considerably better than many of the figures that we saw during June-September 2008 the consensus of opinion on the spread betting market is that there’ll be a Conservative majority of 48 seats. This is based on a Tory mid-point 349 seats and compares with the 353 that the numbers peaked at during the summer. (Every extra seat on the Tory total increases the…
Do Gord and Mandy have a Plan B?
How do they respond to 9 days of polling reverses? While all our eyes have been on Washington Labour is only just assimilating the series of huge poll reverses over the past nine days and the question must be asked – is there anything the party can do now to turn things round again. Just to recall: a week yesterday the Times Populus survey came out putting the Tories on 43% – upping the January deficit from 4 to 10…
Marf’s second take on the day
You can see more from Marf at LondonSketchbook.com.
Will Gord win the Euro-Obama race?
Which of the Euro “Big 3” will have the first meeting? William Hill has just put up a new market on which of Europe’s ‘Big Three’ leaders will be the first to hold an official meeting with new President. Brown is favourite at evens, Merkel is 2/1 with Sarkozy the 3/1 outsider. (UPDATE Now 5/2) The terms of the bet seem to favour Brown given there’s the G20 meeting scheduled for April – but Downing Street is already suggesting that…