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Could YouGov tempt Salmond into taking the gamble?

1/2/2009 Mike Smithson

What would a Scottish election now do for Gordon? With Scottish politics in turmoil following the rejection by Holyrood of the SNP budget last week there’s a YouGov survey for the Sunday Times of voting intentions north of the border which should give heart to Alex Salmond’s party. The poll suggests the following shares comparisons on a similar poll is September October when Labour was doing badly nationally:- Constituency: SNP 38% (-1): LAB 32% (+1): CON 13% (-1): LD 12%…

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How long before the Brown show runs out of puff?

31/1/2009 Mike Smithson

Is 5/2 on a 2009 exit good value? One bet we have not featured recently is the price on Gordon ceasing to be PM for whatever reason before the end of 2009. William Hill Politics had this down to 5/2 during the day though their UK politics markets are usually only open during office hours. What are the chances? The more I look at him the more I’m coming to the view that it will be his health that will…

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Now is the winter of our discontent?

31/1/2009 Editor

…who shall be the ‘glorious sun of York’? The phrase ‘the Winter of Discontent’ is perhaps now better known to describe the political demise of the Callaghan government and subsequent victory of Margeret Thatcher in 1979 than the misquoted opening line of Shakespeare’sÂ Richard IIIÂ whence it came. It captured, and still does, a deep misery – the feeling of a spiralling towards catastrophe that media pundits are trying to re-ignite in the face of a global depression, wildcat strikes and what…

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Will the weekend see “Erminegate – The Sequel”?

30/1/2009 Mike Smithson

Are we being prepared for more revelations? Ever since the Sunday Times came out with its “Â£Â£Â£Â£ for laws” revelations last Sunday the paper has been acting as thought it had other material in the pipeline. First, it will be recalled, there was the sound recording of the conversation with one of the peers – that was released on Monday. Now, this afternoon, we have a video that was secretly shot of a second peer which is up on the…

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Will Gord’s 2007 “BJ4BW” rhetoric come to haunt him?

30/1/2009 Mike Smithson

Brown 24.9.07: “ create British jobs for British workers” Cast your mind back to September 24th 2007. The first Brown Bounce was at its peak. The polls being taken that week were to show double digit leads for Labour. The talk was all about an October or November general election and Gordon Brown rose to make his first speech to a Labour conference as party leader. And what were his plans? What was his vision? Well one extract made all…

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How much of a relief to Gord is this latest YouGov?

30/1/2009 Mike Smithson

CONSERVATIVES 43% (-2) LABOUR 32% (nc) LIB DEMS 16% (+2) Was this predicted by the betting markets? The January YouGov poll for the Daily Telegraph is out and shows a small reduction in the Tory share and a small increase for the Lib Dem on compared with the last survey from the pollster the Sunday before last. The change is well within the margin of error so we can’t read too much into it. But do they never learn? This…

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How daft an idea is this?

29/1/2009 Mike Smithson

Would this destroy the Lib Dems forever Reproduced about is the start of a big article in the latest News Statesman by Sunder Katwala, General Secretary of the Fabian Society, in which he argues for a pre-election LD-LAB pact which would involve Nick Clegg becoming Deputy Prime Minister. He argues: “..By the time Barack Obama leaves these shores in April, Gordon Brown should invite Nick Clegg to be deputy prime minister with Vince Cable as chancellor. The coalition would govern…

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The spread move to the Tories goes into reverse

29/1/2009 Mike Smithson

Are punters starting to get cold feet? As PB’s latest “The Money Says” Index – CON MAJ 54 (-2) – shows there’s been a slight move back against the Tories on the spread-betting markets where punters trade the number of seats the parties will get at the general election as though they were stocks and shares. The slip back of just two seats in the projected Tory majority is not that great but it has taken place since the ComRes…

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