Could these 38 seats be where the UNS won’t apply?

Could these 38 seats be where the UNS won’t apply?

Guest slot: Rod Crosby on the Tory “Tough Nuts” When punters and pundits try to forecast the next election they usually turn to basic swingometers of the Baxter or Wells variety. There is nothing wrong with that, provided we accept these simple tools are really only capable of forecasting the broad “shape” of the result, and not exact seat totals. Nor are they capable of making reliable predictions for individual seats. More sophisticated analysis of Nationalist and LibDem performance, and…

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The Marf Wednesday View

The Marf Wednesday View

Marf’s own site is LondonSketchbook.com Rod Crosby’s guest slot looking at 38 seats where the uniform national swing might not apply will be published before 6pm.

Is this how the crisis gets linked to Number 10?

Is this how the crisis gets linked to Number 10?

How much was a key Brown advisor behind the HBOS fall? The appearance before the commons committee of the bank bosses and the story of the whistle-blower who tried to warn of the dangers of HBOS’s strategy get wide coverage this morning but it’s only really the Times and the Independent that highlight the political dangers to the government. For until now the main charge against the PM was that he was Chancellor during a critical decade when many of…

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Populus: the inter-party dynamics

Populus: the inter-party dynamics

Some numbers behind the headline figures The chart is taken from the detailed data in today’s Populus Poll for the Times and shows current voting intentions linked to what respondents said they did at the 2005 General Election. It focuses solely on those who voted last time – a segment that, surely, must be more likely to vote at the next general election than those, who for whatever reason, were non-voters. The Tories are retaining 97% of their 2005 vote…

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Is there any way back for Brown or Labour?

Is there any way back for Brown or Labour?

UKPollingReport Could the tide turn yet again? One of the lessons that we have learned in the past two years is that the most dangerous assumption you can make is that things will go on as they are. After what, with the benefit of hindsight, was a temporary blip in late November and December all the polls have turned and all are suggesting that Gordon Brown will lead Labour to defeat at the general election – now a maximum of…

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Labour drop into the 20s with Populus

Labour drop into the 20s with Populus

CONSERVATIVES 42% (-1) LABOUR 28% (-5) LIB DEMS 18% (+3) ..and the LDs get a 3 point boost The Populus survey for tomorrow’s Times will be published officially in a few minutes but I’ve just been given the tip off about the numbers from a normally reliable source. [The figures have now been confirmed – see the Times story here] So Populus becomes the third pollster to be showing Labour back in the 20s – further evidence that the Brown…

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Should Gord be more than “very angry” about bonuses?

Should Gord be more than “very angry” about bonuses?

Has he let Cameron in with an opening? One of the features of depression-hit recession-hit Britain is that anybody who is thought to be getting away with it financially, particularly if it’s with taxpayer’s money, is vulnerable to attack. Jacqui Smith and her housing allowance was in the firing line yesterday and that story continues to rumble today. Now the focus is on the bank bosses – especially the bonuses at RBS where billions of pounds of taxpayers money has…

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