Is early voting adding to the McCain nightmare?

Is early voting adding to the McCain nightmare?

For those obsessed with election numbers there’s a new source which I have put in the links bar on the right – the progress that is being made on early voting. In some states quite a lot of information is being made available including the numbers of registered Democrats and registered Republican party voters who have already turned out. The numbers look very good for Obama – reinforcing his continued solid leads in the polls. With this becoming such a…

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YouGov marginals poll suggests Tory majority of 54

YouGov marginals poll suggests Tory majority of 54

A new YouGov poll of 60 marginal seats where Labour’s majority was between 6% and 14% suggests that there’s been a significant move to the government in the past month. In September the poll projected an overall Tory majority of 110 seats – today’s survey puts that down to 54 seats. The actual voting shares in the poll have the Tory lead at 5% – but remember the seats polls were all solidly Labour last time. The poll was carried…

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MORI Tory lead down by 13%

MORI Tory lead down by 13%

But the poll suggests that Labour still heading for disaster The October Ipsos-MORI monitor is out this morning and shows a big reduction in the Tory lead from the very exceptional figures of September when the party was a massive 28% ahead. That survey had taken place before the conference season began when Gordon Brown’s problems were at their height. Everybody was expecting a big drop in the October numbers and so it has been. One unique factor that drives…

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Why was the alleged “ask” only for £50,000?

Why was the alleged “ask” only for £50,000?

From a fundraising perspective this story does not add up For twenty years before switching to work full-time on PB my day job was as professional fundraiser running the operations at Oxford, Cambridge, LSE and York universities as well, in an earlier guise advising on a professional basis organisations such as the Liberal Democrats. And from where I sit the Osborne story as it is being related at the moment simply does not add up. The fundamental flaw is the…

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Is there money to be made on an Obama landslide?

Is there money to be made on an Obama landslide?

How many electoral college votes will he take? With the actual outcome of next month’s US Presidential election now almost a forgone conclusion the big question for punters is where they should bet next – and there’s now better way of testing your skills than trying to guess how many electoral college votes the contenders will win. There are lots of different markets including this one from Ladbrokes where you have to choose which segment Obama or McCain will fall…

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Will it be fourth-time lucky for ICM in 2010?

Will it be fourth-time lucky for ICM in 2010?

How good are current ratings as a pointer to the general election? The fact that there’s been absolutely no change in the CON-LAB shares in today’s Guardian ICM brings to mind the success this series of polls has had in the run-ups to the last three general elections – even from this far out. Just look at the table above showing all the ICM polls for the paper from October 2003 to May 2005 – about the same distance we…

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At what stage will we know that Obama has won?

At what stage will we know that Obama has won?

To help you plan your party – Harry Hayfield guides us hour by hour A fortnight tonight the whole world will be watching the American nation and throughout the UK election night parties are being planned. But what about the timings and when we will know the result? To guide you Mike has suggested that I produce this run-down – hour-by-hour. 11.00pm GMT November 4th 2008 (IN, KY) Now, in any ordinary election, the states of Indiana and Kentucky would…

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It’s the Lib Dems that get the boost from ICM

It’s the Lib Dems that get the boost from ICM

But for Labour and the Tories it’s no change The Guardian‘s October survey from ICM is now out and for Labour and the Tories there is no change on the last poll from the firm just after the Conservative conference. The big winner is Nick Clegg and the Lib Dems who have been battered in recent surveys from other pollsters but not from ICM. The 21% share is not much down on the general election and is the best from…

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