MORI has the Tories heading towards 50% again

MORI has the Tories heading towards 50% again

LABOUR 28% (-2)
LIB DEMS 17% (nc)

…and Labour are back in the 20s?

The latest MORI poll, just out, has some quite dramatic changes with the Tories now up to 48% – twenty points ahead of Labour who are on 28%.

    Downing Street might just take some comfort that this is not quite as bad for Brown as last September when MORI had the Tories on 52% with Labour down on 24%.

Clearly the past week has been quite dreadful for the government and it was almost inevitable that the polling would pick this up.

The MORI top-line numbers, of course, only include those 100% certain to vote and this tends to produce dramatic changes when things are going very bad or very well for a party. So in the second set of figures that the pollster issues, the shares of those naming a party, it’s C39:L31:LD19.

What the poll has not done is confirm the swing to the Lib Dems that we saw last week in the three telephone pollsters that use past vote weighting – ICM, Populus and ComRes. But MORI’s 17% share of last month has been retained. Back in November Nick Clegg’s party was getting just 12%.

    In all the polling at the moment the critical element is what the numbers will do to the internal machinations of the Labour party. It’s hard to see how 20% deficits from the firm are going to do anything other than add to the gloom and speculation about the leadership.

There will come a moment, surely, Brown’s position could come under real pressure.

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