Will the “2010 polling disaster” be blamed on the elderly?

Will the “2010 polling disaster” be blamed on the elderly?

The other day I was asked whether I thought that modern polling still had any weaknesses and what would we be saying about their final predictions in comparison with the outcome on the Friday after the next general election. Are there any segments of the electorate who have a markedly different political profile from the norm who might be being over or under-represented in current polling approaches? The obvious group is the over 55s for we know that older voters…

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Will today be the day that we reach ONE MILLION?

Will today be the day that we reach ONE MILLION?

Who’ll submit comment number 1,000,000? Just five years and two weeks after PB was established at some stage in the next 24 hours somebody is going to submit the one millionth comment. This is an extraordinary number and an achievement that all who are part of the PB community, lurkers and commenters alike, can feel proud of. As I write at 4am the total stands at 998,482 – just over 1,500 to go. So it could be later on this…

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How Populus could have been much worse for Labour

How Populus could have been much worse for Labour

Populus Last night’s big news was the Populus survey for the Times showing that the Tories had extended their lead to 13% – which was in sharp contrast to YouGov the day before that had the gap in hung parliament territory – just 7%. Well I’ve just got round to examining the detailed data and as shown above the poll would have been much worse for Brown’s party but for the so-called “spiral of silence” adjustment. Under this the pollsters…

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Will Scotland finally break the link with this?

Will Scotland finally break the link with this?

How’s the independence referendum going to go? There’s a new market out on the planned Scottish referendum on independence. The opening prices are 1/3 NO and 2/1 YES. What do you think – where’s the best betting value?

Was the Labour 34% the trend or the exception?

Was the Labour 34% the trend or the exception?

Wikipedia Does YouGov point to Brown breaking through the 32% ceiling? As PB regulars will know I’m very sceptical about averaging polls because the pollsters all operate in such different ways that lumping them all into one big number does not really add to anything and can often give a distorted view. There’s was a well researched comment on this by Andy Cooke last night that’s now been made into a full post on PB Channel 2 . A good…

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Spread punters move back to the Tories

Spread punters move back to the Tories

PB Moneys says Index: CON MAJ 53: Up 8 seats There’s been a sharp move back to the Tories on the Sporting Index Commons seats spread markets following the latest polls showing that Cameron’s party is retaining its position. The latest figures with the SELL price first and the BUY price second are: CON 349 – 354: LAB 226 – 231: LD 43 – 46 seats. This represents a four seat shift since Saturday. Here punters looking for high risk/high…

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Is this the way Gord can turn things round?

Is this the way Gord can turn things round?

The Sun But didn’t this approach fail in C&N? The Sun’s Whip column is carrying an interesting story suggesting that Labour is planning to revive it’s “Toff attacks” on the Tories in the run up to the election. According to the report the plan is to portray Cameron, Osborne and possibly others as from a different class than ordinary people who have no real idea about their concerns. The report goes on: The campaign will make huge posters of those…

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What’ll be like when we have fine detail on all of them?

What’ll be like when we have fine detail on all of them?

Click here to watch Was the Pickles roasting a foretaste of what’s to come? Like most recent polls this morning’s April survey by Populus for the Times picked up voter hostility towards MPs and their expenses – but it’s often hard from the numbers themselves to get a feel for the passion that this subject arouses. There’s real anger out there. In the same week that the Daniel Hannan YouTube speech was “going viral” there was, perhaps, an even more…

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