Are they reflecting a separate media contest? The election of a new Speaker of the House of Commons will take place on Monday June 22nd, with the Father of the House presiding from the Chair. Under the revised Standing Order number 1(b), the winner will be selected through several rounds of secret ballot preferential voting. The change in system obviously has a huge impact on the eventual victor, but it is only one of a number of significant changes since…
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Will we see a repeat of 2004-2005? The detailed data from today’s Populus poll shows UKIP on a 7% share for the next general election and that the party is taking almost one on ten of those interviewed who voted Tory in 2005. This is a serious erosion of Tory support and could, if sustained, have a serious impact on Cameron’s dream of becoming Prime Minister of a majority government after the election. But will the UKIP surge continue to…
Populus CON 36 (-5) LAB 24(+3) LD 19 (+4) Blow for Cameron in new Populus poll The latest Populus poll in the Times looks like a serious blow for the Tories following nine terrible days for Labour. The voting intention figures above are bad enough but one of the other findings could be very worrying. As the paper puts it “..faced by a straight choice, 44 per cent would still prefer a Labour government and 42 per cent a Conservative…
Are there lessons you’ve learned for the future? Throughout Monday night, when the Euro results were coming in, the number that meant most to my betting positions was the turnout percentage. My initial call to take the Hills’ 5/1 that it would be below 30% had been ditched once I’d seen the postal voting numbers. My next bet up was 11/4 for the 30 – 34.99% range and a four figure sum was at stake as the numbers came in…
Is the American view of us fair? Paul Waugh in the Evening Standard has picked up on the cover article in the latest Time Magazine which is headed “Why Britain wants to see the back of Gordon Brown”. It’s well worth the read and interesting to see how this all looks from an American perspective. One interesting quote from the piece is this one in which British politics are described as a “contact sport” – something I’ve never heard it…
Is he a Bercow fan or does he have his own plans? The left-leaning Tory MP for Buckingham, John Bercow, continues to be the firm betting favourite to replace Michael Martin in the election a week on Monday and there’s a further write-up of his chances in the Daily Mail. As the report notes: “Labour ministers are plotting to install a Left-wing Tory MP hated by his own leaders as Commons Speaker. Several senior members of the Cabinet have told…
SportingIndex CON 358-363 LAB 202-207 LD 52-55 Betfair GE Party Line CON 350-355 LAB 205-207.5 LD 50-54.5 Why are the prices so different? Has anybody else noticed the discrepancy between the GE Spreads and Betfair’s ‘Party Seats Line’? The mid point sell of Labour on SPIN is 204.5; on the PSL it is 207.25. Not a lot of difference, you might think. But hold on. The PSL sell price should always be *lower* than the spreads, not higher, as it…