A message from Robert Smithson – who keeps PB running As some of you may have noticed, pb.com just had an hour of downtime. Checking through the logs, our machine has been running at 100% capacity for the last few days, and it’s time (again) to go through a necessary upgrade. Currently, Politicalbetting runs on a single server at 1and1.co.uk. On this machine there are two “programs” that run – one is the web server (apache2) and the other is…
Can the PM afford to be seen next to Watson & McBride? Many voters will never have heard of Damien McBride and Tom Watson before today. Few could give their job titles, or explain their relationship to the Prime Minister. Nadine Dorries demanding apologies, and Charles Clarke insisting that McBride should resign could become a Westminster Village story if Downing Street manages to keep to the line that McBride and Watson were acting independently of the PM, and that he…
Will online campaigning finally come into its own? All the blogs and news channels are running with a story about emails written by Damien McBride that allegedly suggested smears that could be run against leading Conservatives. The emails, sent from a Downing Street account, have rather unfortunately (for the Government, obviously) ended up in the hands of the irrepressable Guido Fawkes, and he has reputedly given then (‘for pleasure, not profit’ according to Iain Dale) to a Sunday Newspaper. The…
What impact the proposed changes to the franchise? Other than the mooted proposals last year about lowering the voting age to 16, there are very few modifications that can be made to the electoral franchise that could have a major effect. Voting in General Elections is already open to resident members of Ireland and the Commonwealth, and Britons overseas (including those in foreign gaols). Short of allowing all other resident EU citizens to vote in General Elections (they already may…
BBC News – Feb 13 2009 Could the bail date of April 20th herald a re-opening of the row? The news about Bob Quick is a reminder that one of the most high profile cases that he was involved in, that of Tory front-bencher, Damien Green, is still pending. The next legal stage is on April 20th when his bail is next due up. What’s going to happen then? Is this going to still be pursued? Will Bob Quick’s exit…
Picture credit:Steve Black What’s the next year got in store for Cameron? On Good Friday in 2010 we could either be at the start of an election campaign which might or might not have been formally started. It’s also possible, if some recent suggestions are anything to go by that the election will already have taken place and Cameron might or might not be in Downing Street. For unless other polls follow last weekend’s YouGov survey it’s hard to see…
Take part in the PB Million Prize Competition In the next few weeks the whole MPs’ expenses scandal is going to take on a new dimension when full details and documentation covering every member over a three year period are made public. Tucked away in that mass of information will be odd items that will be even more outrageous and shocking than anything we have seen so far. Jackie Ashley in the Guardian on Monday was saying that the behaviour…
The other day I was asked whether I thought that modern polling still had any weaknesses and what would we be saying about their final predictions in comparison with the outcome on the Friday after the next general election. Are there any segments of the electorate who have a markedly different political profile from the norm who might be being over or under-represented in current polling approaches? The obvious group is the over 55s for we know that older voters…