Is this like Thatcher’s “.. no such thing as society” comment? There’s been a flurry of comment over David Cameron’s comment in his BBC “Westminster Hour” interview in which he suggested that the Tories would run the country like Tesco and Sainsbury’s if they get to power. The exact quote was according to the Sun: “In the situation we will face if we win the election, a budget deficit of maybe 14 per cent, we must find ways to cut…
Why was that result so out of line? Just look at the table above showing the change in the actual number of votes cast for Labour in by elections in the current parliament. The list only features those constituencies that the party was defending and the change is compared with the general election. As is generally accepted parties in government do badly in such contests and Labour has lost half of them. But what happened at Glenrothes last November? It…
Wikimedia Commons Dan Hamilton takes an early look at Brazil 2010 On Sunday 10th October 2010, Brazilians will go to the polls to pick the country’s fourth directly-elected President since the resumption of civilian rule in 1985. The 2010 elections will mark the first Presidential election since 1989 in which incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, a former shoe-shiner and sheet metal worker, will not be a candidate. Choosing not to emulate the example of Colombia’s Alvaro Uribe or…
Have you joined the great Mandelson gamble? The news this morning that efforts are being made to find Peter Mandelson a safe Labour seat in County Durham for the general election has set off a big gamble on the political betting markets. Both Ladbrokes and William Hill have issued press release – the latter now making Mandelson 8/1 to be the next Labour leader. The Ladbrokes prices is a more comfortable 16/1. Ladbrokes say that for every pound at the…
Is it going to be as bad for Labour as 1997 was for the Tories? Reading too much into by-election results is a very dangerous game. There aren’t very many of them and where and when they take place is close to a random process. However, having said all that, there’s one aspect of the recent Norwich North by-election result which could be an important pointer and which hasn’t had much coverage: the scale of the collapse of support for…
CONHome But details are scarce and the pollster isn’t registered The first news of this poll of the 30 most marginal seats has come on ConservativeHome and details are very scarce. Firstly although the pollster has carried out at least one political poll in the UK before it is not listed as a member of the British Polling Council which makes me, for one, feel a touch uncomfortable. Secondly the report that we’ve got does not tell is when the…
Sporting Index Is this where to bet if you think he’ll stay the course? One of my first big wins on a political spread market was on how long Bill Clinton would remain as US president following the Monica Lewinsky affair and the moves to impeach him. The spread was simply on how many weeks his second term would last and this looked uncertain for a period during the impeachment process. As I recall the market in the early summer…
PR Week But has Brown got it within him to do what’s required? This week’s edition of PR Week has an interesting interview with one of the world’s most highly paid political strategists – Mark Penn, global CEO of Burson-Marsteller – in which he holds up some hope for Labour? He’s quoted as saying: “Voters can and do take a second and even third look at their leaders. Tory leader David Cameron has hit a barrier, and a lot of…