Sporting Index Is this where to bet if you think he’ll stay the course? One of my first big wins on a political spread market was on how long Bill Clinton would remain as US president following the Monica Lewinsky affair and the moves to impeach him. The spread was simply on how many weeks his second term would last and this looked uncertain for a period during the impeachment process. As I recall the market in the early summer…
PR Week But has Brown got it within him to do what’s required? This week’s edition of PR Week has an interesting interview with one of the world’s most highly paid political strategists – Mark Penn, global CEO of Burson-Marsteller – in which he holds up some hope for Labour? He’s quoted as saying: “Voters can and do take a second and even third look at their leaders. Tory leader David Cameron has hit a barrier, and a lot of…
YouGov Just look at how Lib Dem supporters are splitting The forced choice question that appears above is one that’s been included in the Telegraph’s monthly YouGov poll for several years now and I think is probably a good guide to potential tactical voting. For this asks simply: “If you had to choose which would you prefer to see after the next election a Conservative government led by David Cameron or a Labour government led by Gordon Brown?”. For me…
Is the party vulnerable to charges of nepotism? There’s an interesting article by Jeff Randall in the Telegraph this morning which explores the extent to which “which blood ties and marriages” seem to matter so much within the top echelons on the Labour party. He notes: that the Labour cabinet includes “…the Miliband brothers, Edward and David; the husband-and-wife team, Ed Balls and Yvette Cooper, daughter of Prospect’s former general secretary; Harriet Harman, the niece of Lord Longford (a former…
CON 41 (+1) LAB 27 (+2) LD 18 (-2) But Labour is still down seven on early early April The third YouGov poll of the month, this one for the Daily Telegraph, has just been published and has some possible less bad news Brown Central. A slight increase in the Labour share which equals the 27 points they were on in late April and early May and is substantially higher than the 21% recorded in one YouGov survey in early…
A new service for supporters of the site At the start of June about 60 PBers very kindly made donations to support the technical infrastructure of the site. In total nearly £3,000 was raised and this has enabled us to make things more robust. As a way of saying thank you we are setting up something called the “PB Early Birds”. This will be a special alert service for when we have news of an attractive betting opportunity. As those…
YouGov November 4th 2005 Could the PM, like Davis in 2005, have ended up on top? Yesterday while we were getting contradictory statements on a Brown-Cameron TV debate I dug up the above YouGov poll up for a national paper which had commissioned me to do a piece on the main contenders’ chances. The November 2005 poll I found was of Tory party members does raise questions over whether Cameron would have been the overwhelming debate winner with Brown as…
Looking back at the Populus poll that’s four years old today Just four years ago today the Times published the findings of an online poll in which those participating were presented with a series of pictures featuring prominent politicians, asking who they were and what their job was. To put the political situation at the time into context the end July 2005 voting intention polls had:- YouGov CON 31: LAB 40: LD 21 Populus CON 28: LAB 40: LD 22…