Is the default polling assumption still against Labour?

Is the default polling assumption still against Labour?

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Will this still stand when the results are known? With YouGov yesterday showing a Labour share of 28% while ComRes for the Indy this morning puts it at 24% I thought it might be useful to remind ourselves of the “PB Golden Rule of Polling”. This is based on the the polling record at every single major election since the 1980s where the survey with Labour in the least favourable position has been the best indicator of voting intention. There…

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Labour still languishing on 24% with ComRes

Labour still languishing on 24% with ComRes

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CON 40%(-1) LAB 24%(nc) LD 21%(+3) The Tory vote seems to be the most solid After the spate of YouGov online surveys it’s good to have a poll from a firm that operates in a totally different manner. ComRes, is a phone pollster with past vote weighting but unlike YouGov does filter its data by certainty to vote. In the past I have had issues with ComRes but adjustments were made to their methodology in June and I’m happy with…

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Is this how Labour could be polling without Brown?

Is this how Labour could be polling without Brown?

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UKPollingReport Remember the days when a hung parliament seemed a certainty? With all the talk about Brown being ousted or stepping down I’ve just been asked by a journalist how I thought Labour would do in the polls if there was a different leader. My starting point was the table above – the polls from the five months before Brown became leader and Prime Minister on June 27 2007. Just looking at the actual numbers came as something as a…

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Does this poll show the impact of Farage/UKIP?

Does this poll show the impact of Farage/UKIP?

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CON 40 (-2) LAB 27 (-1) LD 18 (+1) Tories down to 40% with YouGov The online pollster, YouGov, which has taken such a dominant position in UK polling, has another survey out this morning which might cause some concern at Cameron Central. For although the party is still in the 40s it is only just there and the lead over Labour is down to its lowest since June. We have not got details of the fieldwork period or a…

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The return of the unstable democracies

The return of the unstable democracies

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Greece, and probably Canada, set for autumn elections Democracy in all its forms is a curious beast, and while some democracies are politically stable, the already busy political autumn of 2009 looks set to be joined by elections in two of its less stable members, as international politics got underway in earnest this week, following last Sunday’s elections in Japan and three German Lander. Greece will hold a general election on Sunday 4th October, barely two years into the 4-year…

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Ladbrokes tighten the Farage price again

Ladbrokes tighten the Farage price again

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The UKIP man’s price moves in to 10/3 The big political betting news this weekend continues to be the general election fight in Buckingham between John Bercow and Nigel Farage. When ex-UKIP leader announced on Thursday morning that we would be standing against the speaker Ladbrokes opened the betting with a price of 6/1 that he’d do it. That didn’t last long and tightened to 4/1. Now Ladbrokes have had to bring in the price further because so much money…

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Could a voting reform referendum save Brown?

Could a voting reform referendum save Brown?

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Is this the way to get Lib Dems to support Labour? There are poll findings out this morning from the Electoral Reform Society which might just offer a glimmer of hope to Brown Central in its bid for Labour not to be annihilated in the coming general election. For the response to questions bolted onto last week’s Sun YouGov poll seem to suggest that a promise of a referendum on voting reform might influence some voters – particularly those planning…

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