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YouGov Has this got any electoral significance? Well here’s the big news. A sample of speech watchers that was made up of 78% Tory voters before the speech started became 84% afterwards. Wow! The sample was not politically or demographically weighted and I regard it as meaningless fluff in terms of trying to predict the general election. This is the same as what I said about a similar poll last week after Brown’s speech. The only difference today is that…

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I’m on a train and only caught snippets so I cannot judge the speech. We should be getting an instant verdict from YouGov at just after 5pm,. I’m a bit doubtful about this form of polling because the sample is made up just of people who watched the speech. Last week there was no attempt to weight the Brown reaction and I assume the same will apply this afternoon. The critical thing in determining overall reaction is how its reported…

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CON 40% (-3) LAB 31% (+2) LD 18%(+2) Yet again the daily poll produces a surprise We now have, somewhat earlier than I was expecting, today’s daily tracker from, YouGov and the figures will come as something of a surprise. It’s hard to offer any technical explanation and my sense is that we are seeing a hardening of Labour support as the political environment gets hotter. YouGov is unlike any of the other pollsters in that it only questions those…

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How’s he survived without re-opening the wounds? Just cast your minds back five days to Saturday when news came through of the overwhelming YES to the Lisbon Treaty in the Irish referendum. This, everybody seemed to be saying, could not have come at a worse time for the Conservatives just as their Manchester conference was opening. For was the leader going to be able to side-step the issue of a UK referendum given that the treaty looks set to be…

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I’m tied up with a fringe event at the Tory conference and won’t be posting until the morning. Please use this thread to carry on the conversation. The picture is of a street sign just round the corner from my hotel. Clearly the good burgers of this city have been waiting a long time for the Tories to hold their annual gathering in Manchester. Mike Smithson