Labour move to within 9 points in today’s tracker

Labour move to within 9 points in today’s tracker

CON 40% (-3) LAB 31% (+2) LD 18%(+2)

Yet again the daily poll produces a surprise

We now have, somewhat earlier than I was expecting, today’s daily tracker from, YouGov and the figures will come as something of a surprise.

It’s hard to offer any technical explanation and my sense is that we are seeing a hardening of Labour support as the political environment gets hotter.

YouGov is unlike any of the other pollsters in that it only questions those in its polling panel and it does not weight by certainty to vote.

But it might be that what we are seeing is Labour gaining because of George Osborne’s apparent frankness on Tuesday. Yesterday also saw the bulletins dominated by Grayling’s gaffe.

There are so many YouGov polls at the moment and so few from pollsters who do it differently.

As I’ve been saying for weeks let’s wait until later in the month when we’ll get a better sense of where opinion stands.

This afternoon I’m travelling to London from Manchester for a meeting tonight.

Mike Smithson

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