On the morning Jacqui Smith got good news on her expenses…

On the morning Jacqui Smith got good news on her expenses…

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SkyNews Could this affair explode again? It’s been a bit of an up and downer for former Home Secretary, Jacqui Smith, this morning. With minutes of the report on last December’s arrest of Damien Green there’s news that no further action will be taken against her on her expenses. The investigation into the Green arrest has concluded that the documents that were being handed over to Green “did not contain information which threatened to undermine national security or Government effectiveness”…

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Don’t miss “MPs’ Expenses Scandal2 – The Sequel”

Don’t miss “MPs’ Expenses Scandal2 – The Sequel”

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Showing today on a TV screen near you So it’s the first day of the new term and every MP is due to receive a letter reviving the whole MPs expenses scandal. There’s been a build-up over the weekend and clearly some prominent names, including it seems Mr. G. Brown, are going to be told to hand money back. Now, as several papers are reporting, there are suggestions of a revolt with talk of Sir Thomas Legg’s report being rejected….

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Cameron returns to Bedford as a new favourite emerges

Cameron returns to Bedford as a new favourite emerges

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Bedfordshire on Sunday Are punters reading this one right? With the Tories keen to keep up the Manchester momentum David Cameron is heading back to Bedford tomorrow where what will almost certainly be the biggest electoral test anywhere before the general election takes place on Thursday. At the stake is a by-election for one of the “US-style” mayor posts. There’s an electorate of 117,000 and there’s been a whole stream of leading politicians heading there in the past week. The…

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Why have more women turned to the Tories than men?

Why have more women turned to the Tories than men?

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What’s behind the gender voting changes? The above chart was prepared by Ben Page, CEO of Ipsos-MORI, and shows the changes on the 2005 general elections broken down by social class and gender. Ben has aggregated all the MORI polling data for the first nine months of 2009 and compares it with what happened at the general election in May 2005. The overall increase in the Tory share is 8 points but notice the big difference between men an women….

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The money goes on an earlier Brown exit

The money goes on an earlier Brown exit

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Sunday Express The Brown “days as PM” index moves back ten days With Gordon Brown having survived Labour’s June election disasters, Norwich North and the conference season the level of activity on the “when will he go” markets has been relatively light. The view was growing that he would lead Labour into the battle against Cameron’s conservatives. That’s changed in the past 24 hours following the Number 10 statement about his eye problems. Could this, after all, be the pretext…

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The Tory ICM lead moves to 19 points

The Tory ICM lead moves to 19 points

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CON 45 (+5) LAB 26 (nc) LD 18 (-5) At last a survey where certainty to vote is key! We have been so overwhelmed by YouGov and YouGov-related surveys (PoliticHome and BPIX) that it comes as something of as relief to get some numbers from one of the leading phone pollsters with a track record going back decades. A key element with ICM is weighting by certainty to vote – something which YouGov doesn’t do and which I believe is…

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Should you take George Galloway’s Glasgow NE tip?

Should you take George Galloway’s Glasgow NE tip?

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Is he right about the SNP’s chances? Last night I had a slot on the George Galloway show on TalkSport and we had a good conversation about the current political betting markets. We got on to next month’s Glasgow NE by election when he surprised me by tipping the SNP. Galloway is from Glasgow and was a Labour MP for one of its seats. He must know the workings of the city’s Labour machine inside out so I take his…

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Some polling data for top politics don Anthony King

Some polling data for top politics don Anthony King

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How do these numbers fit with your article Professor? My apologies for returning to this subject but I feel I ought to raise yet again the issue of Blair’s 1996/97 polls ratings which are referred to in a commentary on the Mail BPIX poll by Anthony King, professor of government at Essex University. writes:- “…However, the findings still indicate that the road ahead for the Tories may be rocky. Not only is the Conservatives’ lead over Labour not nearly as…

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