PaddyPower Can he keep the Tory lead to a minimum of 11%? We are nearly at the end of October and time to consider the PaddyPower market on what’s going to happen to the polls next month. Can the Tories sustain a lead of a minimum of 11 points in all the published polls from Populus, YouGov, ComRes, Ipsos-Mori and ICM in November? If you think they can then there’s a not unattractive evens bet available. When it first came…
Could he be storing up trouble for the future? The 2006 picture of David Cameron with the huskies in the Arctic became one of the defining images of the first few months of his leadership as he sought to create a new narrative for the party. Here was a Conservative leader embracing one of the key issues of the day and what better way of making this into a news story than the trip to Norway. But is his view…
Angus Reid Strategies Does Cameron’s plan make electoral sense? It’s one of those bits of received wisdom you often hear from political campaigners – you get a small but noticeable boost if your candidate is a woman particularly if she is the only one on the ballot. Well as part of a poll in the wake of the Tory all-women short-list row Angus Reid Strategies, who do PB’s monthly voting intention survey, have come up with a number of findings…
Ipsos-MORI The changing perceptions since Labour came to power The Ipsos-MORI issues index for October is just out and features, as it has done every month for more than a quarter of a century, the unprompted responses of interviewees when they are asked to list what they see as “the most important issues facing Britain today?” The chart I’ve singled out is, given the BNP and the associated publicity, is on immigration and race relations and shows how views have…
BNP Should we be worried about the polling scam?? Reproduced above is part of a page from the BNP website and sets out a scam aimed at both raising the party’s polling numbers and making money at the same time. The site spells it out: “..Despite recently getting two MEPs elected our support in Yougov polls has recently dropped to 3%. One of the main reasons people don’t vote for us is because they believe we are a wasted vote,…
CON 31% (+9.6) LAB 34% (-8.7) LD 12% (-6.4) PC 15% (+2.4) The first Wales-only YouGov poll The much anticipated first YouGov voting intention poll of Welsh voters is just out and suggests that the Tories are going to make big gains in a part of the UK which used to be almost a blue-free zone. The comparisons above are with what actually happened in the Principality on May 5th 2005. Then Labour won 29 of the 40 seats with…
CON 40%(nc) LAB 27%(-1) LD 18%(-1) And just five more people say they are voting BNP Possibly the most significant number in tonight’s Comres poll for the Independent is the share for the BNP after the massive focus on the party last week in the run-up to the fieldwork. All sorts of figures were being bandied about over the possible effect and yet the share only moves up from 1% ten days ago to 2% – and a lot of…
PoliticsHome MegaMarginals poll Oct 2009 What does the polling show? Ever since the PoliticsHome mega marginals survey came out at the start of October I’ve been planning to do specific threads on each of the seat segments that were included within the 33,000 sample survey. What’s prompted me to do something now is a comment on the previous thread Easterross in which he asserted that “Cornwall, Devon and Somerset will be ALMOST LibDem free zones come 10th May 2010.” He…