Lisbon: Does Dave have a Plan B

Lisbon: Does Dave have a Plan B

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  David Herdson assesses some of the options? Nearly eight years after the Laeken Summit kickstarted the process, there’s a good chance that the final hurdles to ratification of the Lisbon Treaty could be overcome next week, leading to the treaty coming into force on December 1. In Britain, that will throw the spotlight onto the Tories, whose policy on Lisbon will expire with the completion of the ratification process. The current policy of a referendum is one which is…

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Could “The Thick of It” add to Labour’s woes?

Could “The Thick of It” add to Labour’s woes?

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Is the new series reinforcing the MacBride damage? Like many PBers, no doubt, I’ll be glued to the TV tomorrow night for the second episode of the much-hyped and much-anticipated new series of “The Thick of It” – this time getting a good Saturday night slot on BBC 2. Since the last series, of course, we’ve had the Damien MacBride scandal which put the focus on the way Brown Central deals with those who it sees as threats. Just look…

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Where does this leave Miliband (D)?

Where does this leave Miliband (D)?

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BBC Today programme Has he helped or hindered his job prospects? The foreign secretary, David Miliband, figures prominently in two current betting markets – that for next leader of the Labour party where he’s the 5/1 second favourite and for the first High Representative of the EU where he’s now been installed as the 3/1 joint favourite. Anybody interested in betting on both might be wise to spend thirteen minutes listening to this item on Radio 4’s Today programme this…

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What sort of message does this send out?

What sort of message does this send out?

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Times Are we about to have “cut-price” democracy? Oh dear! Oh dear! Can they never get this right? Given current Labour poll ratings in the mid-20s you can understand that ministers are not relishing the coming fight but this morning’s front page lead in the Times sends out all the wrong messages. There are plans to reduce the costs by slashing the number of polling stations and reducing the hours that they stay open. Guess which ones would suffer? Those…

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Is Brown backing the wrong horse in the EU race?

Is Brown backing the wrong horse in the EU race?

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Two polls show UK voters are lukewarm Only hours after Gordon Brown told a Brussels press conference that “there is a general view that Tony Blair is a good candidate and would be an excellent president” two new polls suggest that there is little support for the plan from British voters. For although it’s suggested that some progress might be being made with EU leaders the Labour effort isn’t resonating with voters at home. YouGov for the Daily Telegraph found…

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How will the Tories deal with David Cameron – The “EU-realist”?

How will the Tories deal with David Cameron – The “EU-realist”?

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Could he open up some of the old wounds? I wonder whether all the focus on the prospect of “President Blair” and the continued attacks by Labour on the Tory EU partners is actually overshadowing what could be the biggest UK-EU political development of them all – the rhetoric which is coming from David Cameron? This was looked at by the BBC’s Nick Robinson who today has also written a piece about it. Robinson writes: “..The new Conservative approach to…

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Who’ll get blamed for this lunacy?

Who’ll get blamed for this lunacy?

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Metro Could it affect the outcome in the top betting constituency? The one thing that makes me more furious than anything at the moment is the crazy new law that’s going to impose a hideous regime that will keep adults and children apart. In the name of trying to control paedophiles our stupid MPs have allowed this over-the-top ill-thought out piece of legislation to be passed and now local councils, like Watford, are making their own preparations. Some of my…

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Will MORI help us to map a possible Tory victory better?

Will MORI help us to map a possible Tory victory better?

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1979 polling data is being made available online Part of my standard patter whenever I give talks about the coming election is that we are moving into what is almost uncharted territory. Changes of opinion on the scale that the polls are currently showing happen very rarely and, of course, there has been only one change of government in the past thirty years. One of the challenges for those who like betting on and predicting elections is that the only…

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