What about betting 2,000 pounds Mr. Warner?

What about betting 2,000 pounds Mr. Warner?

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This is the Telegraph writer, Gerald Warner, who has made this amazing prediction on the Julia Kirkbride and Elizabeth Truss re-selection issues. He wrote: “Both Truss and Kirkbride, in their respective constituencies, have slightly less promising prospects than Osama bin Laden in the Tel-Aviv mayoral race. So it seems almost too much to hope that they will succeed in being selected, thus reducing Dave’s putative majority by two seats.” Eh? You must be bonkers. Here’s a tip Mr Warner. Before…

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Is this what happens when the world thinks you are a loser?

Is this what happens when the world thinks you are a loser?

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Would his plan have gone through if his ratings were better? The key impact that opinion polls have is not in predicting the general election but in setting the whole back-cloth for the way current politics is conducted. So is this how we should explain the lack of support for Mr. Brown’s tax plan from other leading countries at yesterday’s meeting of G20 finance minister? If Brown looked set to continue in office for the next five years then his…

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What’s the 2010 campaign going to look like?

What’s the 2010 campaign going to look like?

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Wikimedia Commons What’ll be the messages that chime with the voters? While we wait to see if the Sunday papers have any polls or sensational developments I thought it might be useful to ponder on what the coming campaign is going to look like. What are the messages the parties will try to get over and what is going to resonate with voters. This will be the first election since 1997 1987 when the Tories are likely to start the…

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Truss & Kirkbride: Twin Tory Troubles in Prospect?

Truss & Kirkbride: Twin Tory Troubles in Prospect?

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Are local parties threatening Cameron’s remodelling? In South West Norfolk, the selected Tory candidate faces deselection, the stated reason being the non-disclosure of an affair from some years back; in Bromsgrove, the sitting Tory MP has changed her mind about standing down at the election and now wishes to contest the seat. Apart from both being political fallout from the Expenses Scandal, the two stories could damage the Tory party, especially when taken together, and both concern events around local…

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Does Gord “know” that his man will win Glasgow NE?

Does Gord “know” that his man will win Glasgow NE?

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Would he have visited today if there was any doubt? One of my biggest betting errors of 2008 was to change my initial view of the Glenrothes by-election. My first thought was that Gordon Brown and Sarah would not have joined the campaign if those running the Labour operation had not advised that victory was in the bag. Straightforward thinking and I bet accordingly. Then, just three days before the vote, I got a call from a Scottish political contact…

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Boosts for UKIP and the BNP in latest PB Angus Reid poll

Boosts for UKIP and the BNP in latest PB Angus Reid poll

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CON 38%(-2) LAB 24%(+1) LD 20%(nc) UKIP 6% (+1) BNP 4% (+1) GRN 3% (nc) SNP/PC 4% (-1) And the Tories slip into the 30s? The most striking characteristics of this afternoon’s exclusive new poll by Angus Reid Strategies for Politicalbetting.com are the increases in the shares for UKIP and the BNP with the Tories slipping down to 38%. Like yesterday’s YouGov poll the total proportion of respondents opting for other parties has seen an increase with Angus Reid reporting…

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Will Brown’s “serve full term promise” help his chances?

Will Brown’s “serve full term promise” help his chances?

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Daily Record And what about his election “tip”? Interesting interview with Gordon Brown in the Daily Record this morning. The paper reports: “.DEFIANT Gordon Brown yesterday insisted Labour CAN upset the odds and win the next general election..The Prime Minister said he was still “the man for the job” and is convinced that when the country comes out of recession, voters will return Labour to power for a historic fourth term..If he is re-elected to Downing Street, Brown pledged to…

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Can this go on with little public support?

Can this go on with little public support?

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Is Brown right to acknowledge that the deployment might fail? We are in for a glut of opinion polls in the coming days on the question of Britain’s continued presence in Afghanistan – the latest being on C4 last night from YouGov which had 73% wanting an immediate or early pull-out. Today, according to the Telegraph, Mr. Brown is to make a key speech on the issue in which he will acknowledge that the British mission which has cost so…

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