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Sometimes one question gives you every answer. Are we living through another 1996, or another 1991? The Tories are riven with infighting and far behind in the polls with at most 18 months to go until the election, but some see parallels to John Major’s predicament before he won the 1992 election. That election was won against expectations in large part due to his personal popularity. While ‘The Government’ had deeply negative ratings throughout 1991 and early 1992 he never…

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We are now seeing quite a lot of polls with the Tories 20% or more behind Labour and, of course, time is running out. The election is almost certain to take place next year and unless there is a sea-change in public opinion the Tories will be leaving Number 10. One thing that Sunak has that could be crucial is the ability to choose the election date. My guess is that he’ll hope for an early summer election a few…

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This looks like a massive misjudgment by Sunak Maybe it is because of his own family background but I think Sunak is at his weakest when dealing with immigration issues. It is as though he feels he has to show how tough he is even though the public is much more likely to take a more liberal view. The latest court decision puts him a quandary and it is hard to see a resolution now before the general election. I…

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Given the way that almost all of the polls have moved even more away from the Tories in recent weeks, it is hard to argue that punters have got this wrong. My main worry about this bet is that there it still time for the Tories to decide to change leader and I do believe that Penny Mardaunt would be far more voter-friendly option for the election. The current big idea by the Tories is to attack Starmer for being…

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Nadine Dorries is still an MP Twenty days ago Nadine Dorries announced that she was standing down as a MP for Mid Bedfordshire with “immediate effect”. She still hasn’t submitted her resignation. The bookies opened betting markets on the by-election and a fair amount of money has been wagered. The big issue of course is that she was hoping to be elevated to the House of Lords as part of Boris Johnson’s resignation honours list. Unfortunately for Dorries, the committee…

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Inflation is economic herpes and it usually fatally damages governments so it was no surprise given recent events to see Jeremy Hunt publicly criticise the Bank of England over the inflation crisis but if this is a plan to help the government in the polls then it is unlikely to work and save Sunak as we can see in the poll above. The public aren’t stupid, if Sunak wants to take the credit for halving inflation then he is likely…

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Could Sunak be ousted before the election? On some seat projections based on current polls then maybe 150 Conservative MPs could be ousted at the general election. That would be in excess of the 146 MPs that went down when Tony Blair’s New LAB came in at GE1997. Yet in spite of his dire political situation, we don’t read any reports of plots against Sunak or suggestions that maybe another Tory leader could be put in place. The party seems…

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