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Whilst Labour supporters must be chuffed with the headline voting figures what should worry them is how poorly Starmer’s ratings are, especially on a Prime Minister in waiting, the key factor is how badly the Tories and Sunak are doing which makes Labour look good. Back in 2019 Boris Johnson’s ratings were historically bad for an incumbent Prime Minister but he won because Jeremy Corbyn’s rating, particularly after the Salisbury attack, ended up in the toilet and never recovered. If…

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Rishi Sunak must have been hoping he would get a boost in his ratings after the Tory conference but he has seen a large increase in his disapproval ratings with Redfield & Wilton but given the other shit show with the HS2 cancellation and the Network North plans being utter rubbish these changes aren’t surprising. We live in a de facto Presidential campaign when it comes to general elections, so in a general election campaign where Sunak will be front…

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October 19th sees two by-elections, both in similarly safe Tory seats. The bookies (and presumably punters) rate the Tory chances as fairly different in the two seats. I’m not sure that’s right. Tamworth and Mid Beds certainly have their differences. Tamworth is a Midlands seat which heavily backed leave with an estimated 66% of their vote, whereas Mid Beds is a more affluent southern seat which is estimated to have voted leave by 53% – almost exactly the national average….

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Whoever is advising Sunak, they are advising him badly. I was struck by this tidbit in today’s Sunday Times. MPs understand Sunak’s approach but believe he has been too indulged by his aides, who have let him write his own slogan (“long-term decisions for a brighter future”) and sell himself as he pleases. A member of Vote Leave said: “It’s not exactly ‘take back control’ or ‘get Brexit done’, is it?” This is a prime minister who is happiest mired…

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That world cloud from Savanta was published earlier on this week and it looks not only damaging for the Tories as the next general election but for a generation in the same way the Tories successfully used the winter of discontent for over a decade to win four general elections in a row. The news that broke on Friday evening that Sunak’s cost saving exercise on HS2 could end up costing more and the HS2 extension to Euston may not…

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