When I went on holiday a week ago there was no hint that we could have three Westminster by-elections on the table on my return. Whatever it is there seems to be a trend of big political developments happening when I’m on holiday and this has become something of a joke amongst the PB team. Mid-Bedfordshire, which is adjacent to my own seat in Bedford, has been on the cards for a by-election over the past six months with the…
A reminder Mike Smithson is on holiday until tomorrow. TSE
Success equals performance minus anticipation is mantra I was taught, given what the plurality of Brits expect halving inflation means then Rishi Sunak isn’t going to get much reward in the polls. Perhaps with the cost of living crisis so bad most voters couldn’t afford to pay attention on how inflation works. A recovering economy might underpin a polling boost for the Tories between now and election day but if the voters do not realise it, it might put the…
The bad news for Boris Johnson is that they support his decision to quit. This isn’t the polling for a country itching for a Boris Johnson comeback. A fun betting market would be how many Tory MPs quit with immediate effect bt Monday because we’ve just had our third one in the last day but I think Rishi Sunak will be privately happy that so many Boris Johnson loyalists are quitting. It makes managing the Parliamentary Tory Party marginally easier….
Yesterday afternoon I thought I’d be spending most of the weekend doing pieces on Donald Trump but Boris Johnson’s intervention last night put the kibosh on that. John Rentoul has said applying the average swings in Shropshire North and Tiverton & Honiton to Mid Beds produces a come-from-3rd-place Lib Dem win so I can understand why the Tories are expected to lose both by elections. Based on Chris Bryant’s tweet I suspect Boris Johnson will not stand in Mid Beds,…
What a 30 minutes this has been. Boris Johnson standing down as MP with immediate effect. But are he and Dorries playing 4D chess? TSE
Alastair Meeks and I called this right. I suspect the Tory Party will tear itself apart over the vote to suspend Boris Johnson, but it will need around 40 Tory MPs to vote with the opposition to suspend Boris Johnson and we will get a by election in Uxbridge & South Ruislip. TSE
Today’s big news is Trump confirming he is going to be indicted next Tuesday, bring a whole new meaning to Super Tuesday. For most politicians this would be a career ender but for Trump this is no impediment, the overwhelmingly member of GOP elected officials appear to defend him no matter what. My strategy based on Trump’s legal problems is to lay him for the general election and back him for the GOP nomination, the following poll backs up my…