Just how much has the gap closed?

Just how much has the gap closed?

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UKPollingReport Has a “Hung Parliament” now dropped down the agenda? In preparation for my monthly polling slot for tonight’s “The Westminster Hour” on Radio 4 I’ve been having a good look at the numbers. Clearly in the immediate period after the conference season the Tories were doing better than they have been in the past three weeks. The overnight surveys from YouGov and ICM were the first since mid-November to be back in the 40s. By contrast the Labour shares…

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Does Luton matter more than the whole of Scotland?

Does Luton matter more than the whole of Scotland?

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Are SNP-Labour battles no more than a minor side-show? Anybody who reads the overnight PB threads might come to the conclusion that the only thing that matters in the coming general election is Scotland. For some reason there are periods in the twilight hours when the site becomes almost a Sassenach-free zone (see note below). Quite often I’m accused of not taking Scotland seriously enough or I’m taken to task for asserting (post Glenrothes and Glasgow North East) that Labour…

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Tory YouGov lead moves up 3 to 13 pc

Tory YouGov lead moves up 3 to 13 pc

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CON 40%(39) LAB 27%(29) LD 18%(19) OTHERS 15% (13) Will this ease the jitters in Camp Cameron? ConservativeHome is reporting the above shares for a YouGov poll for tomorrow’s Sunday Times. The changes shown are with the last survey from the pollster NOT the last one in the Sunday Times. The shares are a marked change on the 10 percent lead in the Telegraph last Saturday but the changes are all within the margin of error. Having said that there…

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Does it need an 8.5 pc swing to oust Byrne or a 12.6 one?

Does it need an 8.5 pc swing to oust Byrne or a 12.6 one?

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Which 2005 “notional” result do we believe? A couple of weeks ago it was noted here that there was a big difference in the two most used projections for what the 2005 result in Ed Balls’s new seat at Morley and Outwood would have been on the new boundaries. This afternoon, while researching for piece on Ladbrokes new market on how many cabinet members could lose their seats I’ve found an even more glaring disparity between the UKPollingReport projection and…

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Can they relight the public’s fire?

Can they relight the public’s fire?

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Will the 1990s NuLab stars bring back the magic? The career path is well worn: a group has striking success but over the years, personality clashes emerge, they feel themselves getting stale and want a change or believe themselves constrained by the band and want to strike out on a solo career. The fans however aren’t so keen and the public’s initial interest fades. Before long, they’ve been eclipsed by newer and fresher faces. That might be the end of…

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Is this how UKIP can win Buckingham?

Is this how UKIP can win Buckingham?

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The UKIP General-Secretary responds to Robert Smithson Occasionally the conventional laws of party politics must be put on hold – Blaenau Gwent, Bethnal Green & Bow and Wyre Forest being recent examples. Unusual scenarios lead to unpredictable outcomes; unique circumstances require mundane notions such as swing to be cast aside. Voters no longer make decisions based upon tribal party loyalty; they examine the candidates and decide who is best for the job. On Thursday evening Robert Smithson offered reasons for…

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Are LDs viewing the battle differently in the marginals?

Are LDs viewing the battle differently in the marginals?

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YouGov Is this just a quirk or an election pointer? As PB regulars will know I keep a close eye each month on the forced choice question that is put in the Telegraph’s YouGov poll. It’s been done in the same format for years and the party split might be an indicator of potential tactical voting. For a long period, up to the past couple of years Lib Dem supporters were much more inclined to respond “Labour under Brown” rather…

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Who is winning the climate change argument?

Who is winning the climate change argument?

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Angus Reid Strategies Will the public support tough action? Last week in response to the thread asking for suggestions for possible polling questions several PBers put forward the idea of finding out what the public believed about what for many is the key issue of the age – the extent to which humanity is responsible for climate change. This is central to all policy development because if human behaviour is to blame then maybe something can be done about it….

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