CON 42% (40) LAB 30% (31) LD 16% (17) According to ITV news there’s a new YouGov poll for the Sun that has the Tory leader up by three points to 12%. The changes are all within the margin of error though the Tories will be encouraged to be at their highest YouGov share since just after their party conference in October. It appears as though the survey was carried out AFTER news of the H-H plot and, given the…
This is from the blog of the excellent Iain Martin of the Wall Street Journal:- “…the crucial meeting yesterday afternoon was between the chancellor and Gordon Brown. Alistair Darling and Brown were alone together; they were the only two in the room. But extraordinary rumors are emerging about what was said. I’ve heard from two Labour sources now that the conversation was very difficult and that Darling raised the possibility of Brown going, but the PM resisted. It would be…
Ipsos-MORI What does this say about the coming election? One of the great developments for political anoraks was the publication by Ipsos-MORI just before Christmas of historic polling data that has not been available online before. This covers MORI polls from 1977 onwards and means we have here on-line data from the last period in British politics when the Tories looked as thought they might take power. It’s a long time ago but because of the consistent way in which…
Is Robinson right about the extent of the mutiny? For me the big development overnight in the “Snow-Plot” was the naming of six cabinet ministers on BBC TV by the corporation’s political editor, Nick Robinson who were alleged to be linked in some way to the Hoon-Hewitt move. The group include some heavy hitters including the deputy leader, the justice, foreign, Scottish and defence secretaries as well as a man who has always been regarded as a close Brown supporter,…
I was booked to appear on Radio 5 at just after midnight. With all the fuss I don’t know whether I’m still on so I’m off to bed. The phone will go if they need me. Please use this to continue the discussion. POLLING UPDATE: CON ??%(40) LAB 31%(30) LD ??%(17) The poll was for the Sun with virtually all the fieldwork taking place before Wednesday’s momentous events. Labour will be delighted to move up a notch – even though…
Should they be opening the bubbly at Cameron Towers? After an exciting few hours it now appears that the plot was restricted to the two former cabinet ministers and if any follow-up had been planned it seems to have gone plop. The outcome is that Labour will be going into the election with a leader who has the second lowest approval ratings in the party’s history. Only Michael Foot rated lower. Quite why the bulk of Labour MPs are reluctant…
Is Robinson right – they are waiting and watching? What an afternoon to be a Labour cabinet minister and what choices you have to make. For what many of them decide in the next few hours could totally shape their future in politics. Do they stick with the old regime and hope that it survives or do they switch to support the plotters with all the risks that entails. I can’t believe that Hoon and Hewitt would have made their…
And what should you be betting on? ITV news is reporting that Patricia Hewitt is acting for Harriet Harman. Clearly this move was more than just a call for a secret ballot. There has to be current cabinet minister involved. Whatever it’s hard to see how Gordon can now go on until May. Mike Smithson