CON 40% (40) LAB 24% (24) LD 20% (20) The least volatile pollster retains it reputation There’s a new poll this evening from PB’s pollster, Angus Reid Public Opinion which shows no change whatsoever on the last survey before Christmas. This is the fifth survey in the exclusive PB series which has built up a remarkable record for consistency. Since we started in October the Tories have been on 40 in three polls, and on 39 and 38 in the…
Is this how the political map could change? Philip Palfrey of the University of Sheffield has produced some fascinating graphic material to illustrate how the GB political map for what I think is England could change with different swings. Just look above and watch it change. A key element here is that the map shows all constituencies as being the same geographical size. He has other interesting material that I will feature in future posts. Philip asks me to note…
CON 42% (nc) LAB 30% (nc) LD 16% (nc) Is the Sun using polling to help undermine Brown? On Wednesday evening in the immediate aftermath of the abortive H-H coup attempt we had news of a Sun YouGov poll that had Labour just nine points behind. Almost all of the fieldwork had taken place before news of that development was being reported. Then the following evening we had another poll in the paper showing that the Tories had moved up…
Will you be the Shadsy of 2010? With the new year just over a week old but with plenty of political activity already, it’s time to sharpen your punditry skills and make your predictions for what will be a big year in UK politics. For the first time, the prediction competition is being hosted by the new Election Game site. Rather like Formula One but with elections, the Game offers a full championship season, with the first deadlines being next…
Why is there such a difference in the spreads? In the panel above are the commons seat spreads from Sporting Index and the firm that used to be called IG and now operates as ExtraBet. For punters what is marked is the the quite substantial difference between the two markets. They are within one seat of each other with Labour but look at the difference with the Tory spread and the Lib Dem one. In terms of the overall outcome…
SkyNews Is the rest of the media going to pick this up? The big thing when there is a Sunday political exclusive like the Mail on Sunday’s serialisation of the Peter Watts’ book, Inside Out, is whether the story has “legs”. Will other papers and the TV news channels run with it as well and how long will it dominate the headlines? Well, as above, SkyNews is playing it big and no doubt it will be a key element in…
Or will it make the election more about Brown’s personality? There’s been a lot of hype tonight about a new book, Inside Out by former Labour general secretary, Peter Watt in which he makes less than complimentary comments about Mr. Brown. The Mail on Sunday have bought the serialisation rights and their editorial looks a bit tricky for Number 10. With only about eleven weeks before the election campaign proper starts the main impact could be to put the focus…