Should we be putting the emphasis on the marginals?

Should we be putting the emphasis on the marginals?

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Poll of 97 LAB-held marginals CON 40% (+9.2) LAB 37% (-7.4) LD 14%(-3.8) Standard GB poll: CON 38% (-4) LAB 29% (nc) LD 19%(nc) Or is national voting intention that gives the best picture? Two very different polls tonight both suggesting quite different outcomes to the general election – one will cheer up Labour supporters and the other will provide a boost for the Tories. The comparisons in the former are with what happened in the 97 seats at the…

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Is this when Brown’s “masterful strategy” was blown?

Is this when Brown’s “masterful strategy” was blown?

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Has Peter Oborne got it right on the Iraq inquiry? There’s an excellent piece by Peter Oborne in the Mail today about how Brown’s Iraq inquiry strategy is falling apart. Describing the original plan as “masterful” Oborne” writes:“.. On the one hand he gained the credit for ordering Sir John Chilcot’s inquiry into the invasion, thus honouring one of the promises he made during his Labour leadership campaign in 2007. On the other hand he had cleverly arranged that he…

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Are the Tories getting too much coverage?

Are the Tories getting too much coverage?

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Is the ‘policy a day’ crowding Labour out of the spotlight? If the purpose of a media campaign is to get noticed and get talked about, then the Cameron/NHS posters have been a remarkable success: from spoof versions going viral on the web to questions on Mock the Week to references by Gordon Brown in PMQ’s, the posters have gained attention way beyond most political campaigns. One effect of not just the Tory NHS poster campaign but also the proposals…

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Does marriage matter more in the marginals?

Does marriage matter more in the marginals?

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Could getting this right secure the key to Downing Street? Occasionally we get real gems on the PB threads and there was a great one this afternoon from Blair Freebairn – the geographer who produced that classic guest slot a couple of years ago on the prevalence of English towns amongst the marginals. This was Blair’s latest thinking sparked off by the LAB-CON spat on marriage:- “Labour are totally buggered if they go on anti-marriage. 1 – Of the 100…

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Does the Chilcott move take away Brown’s options?

Does the Chilcott move take away Brown’s options?

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Has it now got to be May 6th? I was very much taken by this post from antifrank:- “The Chilcott Inquiry is proving to be bigger than I thought it was going to be. I think Gordon Brown was very ill-advised to ask to be quizzed before the general election; pretty much whatever he says will dominate the news that week, and I cannot conceive how it could ever be good for Labour. That’s another week taken out of any…

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What should be the default assumption?

What should be the default assumption?

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Final Polls 1987/92/97/01/05: Polls overstating Labour: 29 Polls getting it right: 1 Polls understating Labour: 1 Have we still got to factor in Labour over-statement? There was a constant reminder from many of the speakers at this week’s conference on general election polling that in only one of the 31 final polls in the five general elections since 1987 has Labour been understated. The exception was ICM in 1997 when even with this it still ended up as top pollster….

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Is Labour right to attack on marriage policy?

Is Labour right to attack on marriage policy?

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Have Harriet and Gord found a weakness in the Tory stance? In the last couple of days senior Labour front-benchers have launched attack on Tory plans to incentivise marriage – an issue over which David Cameron appears to have strong views. The latest Labour rhetoric, as Paul Waugh in his Standard blog reports, is to revive the John Major notion of “back to basics” which appeared to rebound so strongly on his government during its latter days. So are Labour…

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Did the Tories put this up in your area?

Did the Tories put this up in your area?

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Is your seat deemed to be a key battle-ground? One thing that strikes me very strongly about general election constituency betting is that the key information that we need is on the party target lists. How serious are Labour/The Tories/The Lib Dems about fighting to defend/attack a particular seat and which are the battles that they assume are won/lost already? The problem is that this information is highly confidential because the last thing the machines want made public are the…

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