Should we be waiting for the MORI January numbers? So in the past week we have had two telephone polls, Populus and ComRes, showing sharpish moves to the Tories while the two online polls have either reported no change (Angus Reid) or Labour moving up a notch and the Tories moving down (YouGov). Given that one, last night’s YouGov had the gap close to, as they say, “hung parliament territory” what is going on and could the election, after all,…
UPDATED 2030 CON 42 % (38) LAB 29 % (29) LD 19 %(19) The first of tonight’s polls is good for the Tories? A new ComnRes poll for the Indy on Sunday is just out and will bring some cheer to Cameron Towers and might add to the gloom within Brown Central. There’s been a straight four point switch from “others” to the Tories with Labour and the Lib Dem remaining static. This is the second of two recent polls…
Is it worth 3/1 that it’ll exceed 70%? PaddyPower have now joined Ladbrokes in opening up a turnout market. Both are making 65 – 69.9% the favourite though the Irish bookmaker is being more generous if you think it will top 70%. It has 3/1 against this option compared with the Ladbrokes 9/4. I’m quite taken with the notion that we’ll see a significant increase on the 60% of 2005. This coming election looks set to produce only the second…
Might it be the shortest-lived ministry since Wellington? As one of pbc’s more regular posters has reminded us more than once, there doesn’t need to be much slippage in the Tory lead to turn the current projected overall majority into minority territory and while it remains odds-on with all bookies that the Conservatives will win outright, the best odds on No Overall Majority are just 11/4 with Ladbrokes. Let’s suppose for the moment that the Conservatives win the largest number of…
But is the trend bad news for Brown’s party? In the coming month or so we are likely to see many more polls like this which seek to find out the political preferences of specific professional groups. This, from MORI, is based on a survey of 1,000 teachers in England and Wales with the fieldwork taking place over a five week period towards the end of last year. It’s hard to know what to make of it though it does…
What have they done to the Ladbrokes site? I don’t know whether it’s just me but I’m finding that the new Ladbrokes site is a total pain in the backside. It takes you so long to find the bets the you want and it’s so much more awkward to navigate. With the ever-sharp Shadsy running the politics markets the firm had been carving out a nice position in the political betting sector. But that now seems to have been put…
Question Time BBC1 – Click to watch Was Hain’s discomfiture a taste of what’s to come? Anybody who followed the previous thread will have got a taste of the passions and anger that were aroused by the discussion on Labour and Iraq on last night’s BBC Question Time programme. It takes up the first twenty minutes and is well worth watching. Already it has prompted that arch-Blair defender, the Indy’s John Rentoul, to blog with his misgiving about how the…
CON 32% (21.4) LAB 35% (42.7) LD 13% (18.4) PC 13% (12.6) But the numbers point to big Tory gains In what I believe is only the second Wales-specific YouGov poll both Labour and the Tories have both moved up a point on the first such survey last November while the Lib Dems and PC have been knocked back a point each. The comparisons above are with the 2005 general election outcome in the Principality. If this is indeed what…