In local elections week R&W, has LAB edging up again
Starmer’s approval rating up 5 Starmer maintains his “best PM” position Mike Smithson
73% of Americans say Biden shouldn’t run again
Is the WH2024 nomination race now over? The big news in US politics over the past week has been the announcement by Joe Biden that he wants to seek a second term. If he was nominated and won he would be 86 years old at the end of his term. This is very much against public opinion in the US where voters across the board are opposed to such a move. A poll for Forbes found only 26% of respondents…
YouGov predict major losses for the Tories on Thursday
YouGov have done some analysis of the local elections which allows them to make the above predictions. Ladbrokes have markets up on who will control the below councils after Thursday’s elections, if you can spot some value let me know in the comments. TSE
Why Sunak’s ratings might not be enough
Speaking to a Tory activist friend earlier on this week about how things are going on the campaigning front and they said that if the locals were solely about Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer then it wouldn’t be such a bad night for the Tories on Thursday which reflects the leader ratings which are better for the Tories than the headline voting intention figures, although last night’s Opinium might be a harbinger of that unravelling. However the rather large…
LAB’s Opinium voting lead over CON now 18% – up 4
And Starmer’s leader ratings a net 15% ahead I tend to favour the surveys from the pollsters that have done at least one general election which is why Opinium gets more attention than those which started after GE2019. These latest numbers are good for Labour and bad for the Tories. We’ll get another view of public opinion from Thursday’s local elections. Mike Smithson
The Mirror now becoming the leading backer of King Charles
This looks very interesting from a media standpoint because the Mirror has never really been a big backer of the monarchy. What is getting the paper’s support is the plan by Charles to cut back on the costs of the monarchy that are picked up by taxpayers – this starts with a scaled-down Coronation. I think he is reading the public mood correctly. Mike Smithson
Just 46% of GE2019 CON voters still support the party
It was last January that we last did an analysis like the one above on what YouGov is finding when it asks GE2019 Tory voters what they would do now. What is interesting is that there has been almost no movement over the past four months. Sunak is still struggling with those who backed what was then Johnson’s party at the last election. By contrast 68% of GE2019 LAB voters are still saying they back the party. All this is…
Latest general election most seats betting
The value is still with LAB – just We could be less than a year away from the general election and betting markets like the one above are going to get a lot of attention as we get closer. The one thing that Sunak has is that he, and he alone, will decide the date, and no doubt he’ll be hoping for an uptick in the polls as we get closer. A week today we will be chewing over local…