Should you take the 100/1 shot in Buckingham?

Should you take the 100/1 shot in Buckingham?

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Could it be Stevens not Farage who floors Bercow? One of the great side-shows in the election is the scrap in Buckingham where the speaker, John Bercow, is seeking to defend his seat. The main parties are following the convention of not standing against him but there are one or two tricky opponents who might cause him problems. The efforts by ex-UKIP leader, Nigel Farage, have been well documented and he must be in with a chance. But there’s another…

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Are we witnessing a remarkable come-back by Labour?

Are we witnessing a remarkable come-back by Labour?

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YouGov daily poll (The Sun) Mar 24 Mar 23 CONSERVATIVES 36% 37% LABOUR 34% 33% LIB DEMS 17% 18% LAB to CON swing from 2005 2.5% 3.5% Tory daily poll lead drops to just 2 percent Tonight’s daily poll by YouGov for the Sun has Labour up to 34% and the Tories down to 36%. The gap equals the smallest that we’ve seen in this series and will add to the jitters in Tory ranks. It is important to stress…

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Is this the man who’ll be giving the next budget?

Is this the man who’ll be giving the next budget?

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Could Dave ditch Osborne if/when he becomes PM? Just after 4am yesterday morning I was skimming Monday’s overnight thread to get some ideas for my Tuesday morning post when one thing suddenly struck out – a comment saying that SkyNews were reporting that Cameron was going to re-shuffle the shadow cabinet in response to the declining poll ratings. I wrote that although this would smack of panic the timing could not be better because the news would get swamped on…

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Others up to 20 percent with Harris

Others up to 20 percent with Harris

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Harris poll for The Metro Mar 22 Mar 15 CONSERVATIVES 35% 36% LABOUR 28% 28% LIB DEMS 17% 18% LAB to CON swing from 2005 5% 5.5% There’s a new Harris poll in the Metro which has both the Tories and the Lib Dem down a point and Labour on a standstill. The big feature is the very high level, 20%, for others and is similar to the trend that we saw with the Optimum survey on Monday for the…

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Dissatisfaction with Brown back in the 60s

Dissatisfaction with Brown back in the 60s

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Are you satisfied/dissatisfied with Brown/Cameron/Clegg ..” Satisfied Dissatisfied +/- BROWN 34% (36) 60% (57) -5 CAMERON 42% (44) 42% (40) -4 CLEGG 45% (44) 25% (27) +8 Ipsos-MORI Mar 21 (Feb 22) And Cameron gets his worst ratings since 2008 I’ve now had advance sight of the Ipsos-MORI leader approval ratings for March – a form of questioning that has been asked in the same way by the firm for more than a third of a century. The numbers are…

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Do leaders now matter more than policies?

Do leaders now matter more than policies?

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Ipsos-MORI Does this mark a turning point? Whilst checking out the Ipsos-MORI website overnight I came across a fascinating paper on what the pollster describes as the “Presidentialisation’ of British politics? The chart is self-explanatory – the leader is becoming more important in the eyes of voters and we could reach a point at this election when it takes over as the main driver. The MORI paper goes on: “..In fact, past evidence has suggested that voters tend to underestimate…

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The daily poll non-sensation

The daily poll non-sensation

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YouGov daily poll (The Sun) Mar 23 Mar 22 CONSERVATIVES 37% 36% LABOUR 33% 32% LIB DEMS 18% 20% LAB to CON swing from 2005 3.5% 3.5% The LDs drop two Another unexciting daily poll sees very little change except for the LDs to drop two and for Labour and the Tories to move up one. The Tories might have expected a Sam Cam Mam boost but alas that doesn’t seem to have happened. What is odd about YouGov is…

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