Should phone pollsters handle the “don’t knows” differently?
ICM Marginals poll Voted CON 2005 Voted LAB 2005 Voted LD 2005 B “I think I know who I’ll vote for but could change my mind” 18% 25% 31%
Tories drop three in the daily poll
YG daily poll – The Sun Apr 11 Apr 10 CONSERVATIVES 37% 40% LABOUR 31% 32% LIB DEMS 20% 18% LAB to CON swing from 2005 4.5% 5.5% Following the launch of the official campaign we are now getting the YouGov daily poll every day and tonight sees the first one where the fieldwork started on a Saturday evening and finished this evening. This is a sampling period that we have no past experience of and it will be interesting…
The Sunday night round-up
This is a regular feature which will run every Sunday night up until polling day, to include the last set of figures from each pollster, as well as the current seat spreads from the betting markets, and also international updates. The pollsters Last poll from each pollster Con Lab LD Oth Lead YouGov 10 Apr 40 32 18 10 8 BPIX 10 Apr 38 31 20 11 7 ICM 10 Apr 38 30 21 11 8 ComRes 10 Apr 39…
Will this just get people not to vote?
Is Dale right – “this is the smartest poster yet”? Iain Dale has blogged on this suggesting that it’s smart because “it’s what most voters think”. I think he’s wrong and that the poster is a mistake. Are UKIP trying to put not voting at all on the same level as voting UKIP? UKIP have a good message on the EU – why not stick with it? And I’m not so sure whether using what many consider to be a…
Should you be betting on the pollsters – or their polls?
Pollster Firm Prediction Andrew Hawkins ComRes Con majority 32 Ben Page Ipsos-MORI Con 25 seats short Andrew Cooper Populus Con majority of 10+ Peter Kellner YouGov Con majority 20-30 Robert Salvoni Harris Con majority 2-10 Andy Morris Angus Reid Con majority 40-50 Martin Boon ICM Con majority 20 John Heald Opinion Research Con majority 40+ Seven out of eight predict a Tory majority Thanks to the Independent on Sunday for this one – a survey of what the pollsters themselves…
Finally the YouGov family polls
YG daily poll S. Times Apr 10 Apr 9 CONSERVATIVES 40% 40% LABOUR 32% 30% LIB DEMS 18% 20% LAB to CON swing from 2005 5.5% 6.5% BPIX/YG Mail on Sunday Apr 10 Mar 27 CONSERVATIVES 38% 37% LABOUR 31% 30% LIB DEMS 20% 20% LAB to CON swing from 2005 5% 5% With so many surveys all coming out overnight it can be quite hard digesting them and I’ve deferred publishing the YouGov daily poll detail until the BPIX/YouGov…
But the LDs blunt Tory progress in the LAB-CON marginals
ICM Marginals poll-NOTW 2005 Apr 9 Jan 22 CONSERVATIVES 30.8% 36% 40% LABOUR 44.4% 37% 37% LIB DEMS 17.8% 19% 14% LAB to CON swing from 2005 . 6.3% 8.3% As well as the main national ICM poll there’s a new marginals survey by the firm in the News of the World based on the same seats as the paper’s January marginals poll. With all marginal polls the critical factor is the swing from what happened in those seats at…
ICM come back into line
ICM – S. Telegraph Apr 9 Apr 4 CONSERVATIVES 38% 37% LABOUR 30% 33% LIB DEMS 21% 21% LAB to CON swing from 2005 5.5% 3.5% ComRes: S. Mirror/IoS Apr 9 Mar 30 CONSERVATIVES 39% 37% LABOUR 32% 30% LIB DEMS 16% 20% LAB to CON swing from 2005 5% 5% There’s quite a lot of poll news tonight and this post will be updated – but the most significant is the latest from ICM for the Sunday Telegraph. This…