|ICM Marginals poll-NOTW||2005||Apr 9||Jan 22|
|LAB to CON swing from 2005||.||6.3%||8.3%|
As well as the main national ICM poll there’s a new marginals survey by the firm in the News of the World based on the same seats as the paper’s January marginals poll.
With all marginal polls the critical factor is the swing from what happened in those seats at the 2005 general election and here that is at 6.3% – or better than that in tonight’s standard ICM poll. The gap, however, isn’t large.
The big change on the January 2010 poll are the four point drop in the Tory share and a huge increase, to higher than 2005 election levels, for the Lib Dems.
You would expect that the Lib Dems would see their share really squeezed here and from these polling figures at least that does not seem to be happening.
UPDATE: Labour have MOE increase in the daily poll
|YG daily poll S. Times||Apr 10||Apr 9|
|LAB to CON swing from 2005||5.5%||6.5%|