Should you be betting on the pollsters – or their polls?

Should you be betting on the pollsters – or their polls?

Comments 0 Comment

Pollster Firm Prediction Andrew Hawkins ComRes Con majority 32 Ben Page Ipsos-MORI Con 25 seats short Andrew Cooper Populus Con majority of 10+ Peter Kellner YouGov Con majority 20-30 Robert Salvoni Harris Con majority 2-10 Andy Morris Angus Reid Con majority 40-50 Martin Boon ICM Con majority 20 John Heald Opinion Research Con majority 40+ Seven out of eight predict a Tory majority Thanks to the Independent on Sunday for this one – a survey of what the pollsters themselves…

Read More Read More

Finally the YouGov family polls

Finally the YouGov family polls

Comments 0 Comment

YG daily poll S. Times Apr 10 Apr 9 CONSERVATIVES 40% 40% LABOUR 32% 30% LIB DEMS 18% 20% LAB to CON swing from 2005 5.5% 6.5% BPIX/YG Mail on Sunday Apr 10 Mar 27 CONSERVATIVES 38% 37% LABOUR 31% 30% LIB DEMS 20% 20% LAB to CON swing from 2005 5% 5% With so many surveys all coming out overnight it can be quite hard digesting them and I’ve deferred publishing the YouGov daily poll detail until the BPIX/YouGov…

Read More Read More

But the LDs blunt Tory progress in the LAB-CON marginals

But the LDs blunt Tory progress in the LAB-CON marginals

Comments 0 Comment

ICM Marginals poll-NOTW 2005 Apr 9 Jan 22 CONSERVATIVES 30.8% 36% 40% LABOUR 44.4% 37% 37% LIB DEMS 17.8% 19% 14% LAB to CON swing from 2005 . 6.3% 8.3% As well as the main national ICM poll there’s a new marginals survey by the firm in the News of the World based on the same seats as the paper’s January marginals poll. With all marginal polls the critical factor is the swing from what happened in those seats at…

Read More Read More

ICM come back into line

ICM come back into line

Comments 0 Comment

ICM – S. Telegraph Apr 9 Apr 4 CONSERVATIVES 38% 37% LABOUR 30% 33% LIB DEMS 21% 21% LAB to CON swing from 2005 5.5% 3.5% ComRes: S. Mirror/IoS Apr 9 Mar 30 CONSERVATIVES 39% 37% LABOUR 32% 30% LIB DEMS 16% 20% LAB to CON swing from 2005 5% 5% There’s quite a lot of poll news tonight and this post will be updated – but the most significant is the latest from ICM for the Sunday Telegraph. This…

Read More Read More

Will the Electoral Commission intervene to stop this?

Will the Electoral Commission intervene to stop this?

Comments 0 Comment

Should a party rename itself after a bookie? With all the bookies trying to catch the attention of potential political gamblers in the run-up to the election William Hill and and Official Monster Raving Loony Party have come up with an original sponsorship deal – the party is to be renamed after the firm for the period of the election campaign. This means, I guess, that in its new guise, the Monster Raving Loony William Hill Party, will be described…

Read More Read More

Was Adonis right to target Clegg’s party?

Was Adonis right to target Clegg’s party?

Comments 0 Comment

Is the Lib Dem recovery eating into Labour’s vote? When Lord Adonis made his appeal[1] for Lib Dems to back Labour at the general election, he was basing that call on what he saw as “the fundamental Labour-Lib Dem identity of interest”. It sounds a positive message and he quotes various instances when Labour and the Lib Dems have worked together both recently and throughout their histories. There could well have been a defensive as well as a tactical reason…

Read More Read More

It’s 40/30/20 with YouGov

It’s 40/30/20 with YouGov

Comments 0 Comment

YG daily poll: The Sun Apr 9 Apr 8 CONSERVATIVES 40% 40% LABOUR 30% 31% LIB DEMS 20% 18% LAB to CON swing from 2005 6.5% 6% So tonight’s YouGov daily poll reinforces the trend that we have seen from other polls this week. A move away from Labour with the Tories either progressing a bit or holding firm Given differential swings in the marginals this puts the blue team into overall majority territory and will add to the jitters…

Read More Read More