I’ve not been able to watch Starmer’s speech due to work commitments so cannot comment upon it yet, a colleague observed earlier on they would expect Starmer to remind the country that he’s a lawyer. TSE
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A lot of focus will be on Andy Burnham outpolling Sir Keir Starmer in a hypothetical leadership contest but this polling is moot given Andy Burnham isn’t an MP, it will be difficult for him to become an MP, and the polling was taken before his recent implosion. My main focus is on what I think is the value in backing Bridget Phillipson to win the deputy leadership given YouGov’s track record in leadership contests, at 8s when she’s only…
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Across three different pollsters we could soon the Tories in fifth place, which I think would trigger problems for Kemi Badenoch as the party’s MPs and donors just wouldn’t countenance it. If the remaining Tory voters start to think their vote will be wasted and the party sinks lower. TSE
‘Vote Reform get Putin’ might be a great slogan for the opponents of Reform in Wales but does Nigel Farage have the skill to deal with this and will the voters care? TSE
I thought Burnham’s intervention yesterday would backfire and there’s certainly been that as we can see with Labour MP Neil Coyle’s tweet and Number 10 comparing Andy Burnham to Liz Truss. TSE
I would caution about reading too much into MRPs this far from an election, when the original MRP was published in 2017 it was stated by the academics behind it that MRPs become less accurate the further they are away from an election and become more reliable in the six to nine months before the election. As I noted in the previous thread, tactical voting against Reform could push them well away from a majority. TSE