What was this all about?

What was this all about?

Was this the weirdest moment of the campaign? I’ve now watched this several times and I still can’t answer my own question. Why has a complete news cycle for Labour been dominated by Gordon and the Elvis impersonator? What was the plan? What was the big idea? UPDATE – I’ve changed the video clip to the Channel 4 version – it’s even more strange. Majority betting NOM CON LAB OTH/LD Ladbrokes 4/6 11/8 16/1 20/1 Political Smarkets 57% 40% 5%…

Read More Read More

The positive polling news for the Tories continues

The positive polling news for the Tories continues

YouGov Daily Poll – S. Times Apr 24 Apr 23 CONSERVATIVES 35% 34% LIB DEMS 28% 29% LABOUR 27% 29% BPIX/YG Mail on Sunday Apr 24 Apr 17 CONSERVATIVES 34% 31% LIB DEMS 30% 32% LABOUR 26% 28% MORI – News of the World Apr 23 Apr 19 CONSERVATIVES 36% 32% LIB DEMS 23% 32% LABOUR 30% 28% Is MORI an outlier? Overall it’s been a good polling night for the Tories with the party well established in the mid-30s…

Read More Read More

Mixed messages from ComRes and ICM about Labour

Mixed messages from ComRes and ICM about Labour

ICM Sunday Telegraph Apr 23 Apr 18 CONSERVATIVES 35% 33% LIB DEMS 31% 30% LABOUR 26% 28% ComRes S. Mirror/IoS Apr 24 Apr 20 CONSERVATIVES 34% 35% LIB DEMS 29% 27% LABOUR 28% 25% But the Lib Dems progress with both So our first two polls for tomorrow’s Sunday papers are out and provide mixed messages for the reds and blues but good news for the yellows. For the key development is that the yellow bubble hasn’t burst and the…

Read More Read More

Is Brown in for a shock from ICM tonight?

Is Brown in for a shock from ICM tonight?

Lots of hints starting to emerge about the polls for the Sunday papers. Kratz reported this on an earlier thread: “Labour are losing ground in ICM to both the Lib Dems and the Tories. The gap between Tories and LD is greater than in the previous ICM but the LD share is higher once again. Sorry for talking in riddles.” Looking back over previous comments from Kratz he/she has been pretty good with poll predictions – the reason why I…

Read More Read More

Brown-Cameron: What Lib Dem voters think

Brown-Cameron: What Lib Dem voters think

Are you satisfied/dissatisfied with the way Brown is doing his job..?” (MORI Apr 18) Satisfied Dissatisfied All questioned 35% 59% Lib Dem voters only 29% 65% Are you satisfied/dissatisfied with the way Cameron is doing his job..?” (MORI Apr 18) Satisfied Dissatisfied All questioned 45% 42% Lib Dem voters only 32% 56% With the talk continuing over whether Clegg would prop up Brown or not I thought I’d dig out Lib Dem voters splits from the latest MORI poll. The…

Read More Read More

Where have all the billboard posters gone?

Where have all the billboard posters gone?

Why’s Labour not using such a traditionally effective medium? All elections are different in some way from what’s gone before as new campaigning techniques and opportunities come in, as new issues and concerns arise and as new candidates find alternative ways of interacting with the electorate. This one’s no exception. While much has rightly been made of the TV debates – by far the biggest innovation of the 2010 election – one major component of recent elections seems curiously absent this…

Read More Read More

Libs Dems edge back a point in the daily poll

Libs Dems edge back a point in the daily poll

YouGov Daily Poll – Sun Apr 23 Apr 22 CONSERVATIVES 34% 34% LIB DEMS 29% 28% LABOUR 29% 29% It’s almost no change after the second debate This evening’s YouGov daily poll for the Sun is just out and apart from the one point lift for the Lib Dems it’s no change. This is the first poll where all the fieldwork followed the debate and both the red and blue teams might feel a tad disappointed not to have seen…

Read More Read More