For all his hopes the betting markets give Johnson. a very small chance of actually being the election leader. It is hard to see after the weekend’s event things getting better for the man who beat Corbyn in 2019. But there will be more challenges to Sunak in different forms. Johnson blames him for so much of what has happened in the past year. Mike Smithson
Tuesday’s papers are just coming in and inevitably the public row between Sunak and Johnson is dominating the front pages. There hasn’t been any specific polling but I’m starting to think that Sunak is coming out of this well. He stopped Johnson going too far on the honours list row and I have been impressed by his responses. We have seen a very different Sunak – one who is ready to take on his predecessor but one and my guess…
The above Tweets from the leading political scientist Prof Rob Ford are a big reminder of how Johnson was viewed when he was PM. He wasn’t popular and his claim to fame for his GE2019 success was down o the fact he was facing Corbyn. The on-the-day poll by Opinium of GE2019, discussed here before, shows that the big driver of LAB to CON switchers was Corbyn. I think the comparison with TMay sums it up. Mike Smithson
When I went on holiday a week ago there was no hint that we could have three Westminster by-elections on the table on my return. Whatever it is there seems to be a trend of big political developments happening when I’m on holiday and this has become something of a joke amongst the PB team. Mid-Bedfordshire, which is adjacent to my own seat in Bedford, has been on the cards for a by-election over the past six months with the…
A reminder Mike Smithson is on holiday until tomorrow. TSE
Success equals performance minus anticipation is mantra I was taught, given what the plurality of Brits expect halving inflation means then Rishi Sunak isn’t going to get much reward in the polls. Perhaps with the cost of living crisis so bad most voters couldn’t afford to pay attention on how inflation works. A recovering economy might underpin a polling boost for the Tories between now and election day but if the voters do not realise it, it might put the…
The bad news for Boris Johnson is that they support his decision to quit. This isn’t the polling for a country itching for a Boris Johnson comeback. A fun betting market would be how many Tory MPs quit with immediate effect bt Monday because we’ve just had our third one in the last day but I think Rishi Sunak will be privately happy that so many Boris Johnson loyalists are quitting. It makes managing the Parliamentary Tory Party marginally easier….
Yesterday afternoon I thought I’d be spending most of the weekend doing pieces on Donald Trump but Boris Johnson’s intervention last night put the kibosh on that. John Rentoul has said applying the average swings in Shropshire North and Tiverton & Honiton to Mid Beds produces a come-from-3rd-place Lib Dem win so I can understand why the Tories are expected to lose both by elections. Based on Chris Bryant’s tweet I suspect Boris Johnson will not stand in Mid Beds,…