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The big political story this afternoon is that the SNP MP, Margeret Ferrier, has lost her seat following a successful recall petition. This means a by-election in what was an SNP gain from LAB at GE2019. Given the current position of both parties then it is little wonder that LAB is such a hot favourite. The outcome will be a good indicator of how Scottish LAB is likely to perform against the SNP in Scotland at the general election. Starmer’s…

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Of the three by-elections that the Tories were defending last Thursday Uxbridge seemed to be the most challenging for the Tories. Yet the party ended up with a very narrow hold after a skilled campaign linked to the planned extension of ULEZ in the outer London boroughs. In many ways the Tory defence was a classic LD by-election approach. Find an issue and then hammer it out like crazy and it certainly helped get the Tory vote out. Fortunately for…

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On June 9th the novelist, TV presenter, and occasional MP Nadine Dorries, announced that she was resigning as an MP “with immediate effect”. This prompted the bookies and betting exchanges to set up markets on a by-elecion in Mid Bedfordshire.. Not long afterwards the Labour party published a specially commissioned constituency Opinium poll for the seat which had Starmer’s party winning with the LDs in 4th place. I have noted many times before that constituency polls are very hard to…

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The grass is green and the balls are yellow. This is a hill I am prepared to die on. Roger Federer said the balls are yellow, case closed unless you genuinely think you know more about tennis than Roger Federer. TSE

I was speaking to a former political strategist recently and they wondered if Sunak’s five pledges, particularly his tackling the small boats targets, would be as damaging to Sunak as George Bush Snr’s ‘Read my lips, no new taxes’ moment. Based on this polling the country has very little faith in Sunak’s five pledges being met. TSE

Starmer needs to give the electorate positive reasons to vote Labour Yesterday’s Times published some YouGov polling which shows A majority of Labour voters are repelled by the Conservatives rather than attracted by Sir Keir Starmer, polling finds. About 75 per cent of those switching from the Tories to Labour say their main motivation is unhappiness with the government rather than enthusiasm for opposition plans. Conservative voters are barely more enthused by Rishi Sunak, with 45 per cent saying they…

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