These are the five that I’m expecting – numbers to be filled in as the news comes out. Where we get information from good sources that will be put underneath each box as an update. ICM Sunday Telegraph ICM – Sunday Telegraph Apr 30 Apr 25 CONSERVATIVES –% 33% LIB DEMS –% 30% LABOUR –% 28% ICM UPDATE 1355 – Clue from usually reliable posters are suggesting that the Tories are on 36% with the LDs on 29%. No information…
What’s the best way to model the Lib Dem surge? This has been an election campaign like no other, with the PM contender debates dominating coverage. While the Lib Dems have usually increased their showing in the polls over the course of a campaign, the double-digit increases are unprecedented in such a short period at such a crucial time. The problem in trying to predict the election outcome is as always how to translate votes into seats. We have rightly…
And the LDs move to within one point Harris – Mail Apr 30 Apr 28 CONSERVATIVES 33% 32% LIB DEMS 32% 30% LABOUR 24% 25% A second poll out tonight, from Harris for the Daily Mail, has good news for the Yellows, moderately good news for the blues, and Labour edging down to just 24%. This is just one point above the 23% that the Angus Reid/Economist poll found. News of the poll has come from the reproduction of front…
Only Labour moves up a point YouGov – the Sun Apr 30 Apr 29 CONSERVATIVES 34% 34% LIB DEMS 28% 28% LABOUR 28% 27% Those who were expecting big polling changes following the final debate will be disappointed. In the latest YouGov daily poll the Tories remain at their pre-Bigotgate 34% with both Labour and the LDs on 28%. I think that the Team Blue will find it slightly deflating not to be making the progress that last night’s performance…
Guardian
For me the striking thing about Labour’s final week campaign is not the effectiveness of the poster itself but who it it aimed at. For study after study has shown that the group most detached from the political process are younger working class women. Not only are they less likely to vote than working class men of the same age but they are also much less likely to have any political allegiance. But how do you get to them? In…
Should punters wait for post-debate polls? There’s been a sharp movement back to a Tory majority on the overall outcome markets following last night’s debate. As yet there has been no full voting intention survey but gamblers have decided that this is good for Team Blue. If you wait for a poll then the odds might have tightened – one of the risks that punters have to take. Mike Smithson
Who won final debate? ICM AR YouGov ComRes Populus Cameron 35% 36% 41% 35% 38% Clegg 27% 30% 32% 33% 38% Brown 29% 23% 25% 26% 25% Debate polling – the final figures All of the pollsters agree that it was Dave wot did it – though Populus has him sharing the top slot with Clegg. Meanwhile the phone pollster that operates in a very similar manner, ICM for the Guardian, had the Lib Dem leader in bottom place. Martin…